Malawi is on track to face a severe food crisis later this year as El Niño-related drought hits crops of maize, the staple food grown by nine in 10 farms in the country.
In March, the government declared a state of disaster as food reserves were so low that the country entered the dry season. Malawi consumes about 3.5 million tonnes of maize each year, but the government estimates it will only harvest 2.9 million tonnes, a shortfall of 600,000 tonnes.
On April 30, President Lazarus Chakwera said $447 million in aid was needed to import food, boost production during the dry season and protect Malawi from the next drought. It is unlikely the government will be able to raise the full amount.
We, and our partners below, are analysing Malawi’s food systems and agricultural policies. We believe the only way Malawians will have enough food this year is to import it.
Building a food system that can withstand future droughts is the overriding goal, but it will not be possible in time to prevent famine this year. This leaves Malawi with only two options: import food or grow food during the dry season. In this article, we argue that importing is the only realistic way Malawians can ensure they have enough food to last until the next harvest.
The next rains are expected around the end of 2024, with the harvest around April 2025. This means that, as in past El Niño-affected years, up to 40% of the population could require food assistance.
For a cash-strapped country where imports exceed exports, growing food during the dry winter is a more attractive proposition than using scarce foreign currency to buy food. The government believes that if it allows farmers to grow crops this winter, they can produce enough corn to make up for this year’s harvest losses. It’s a very risky strategy. It relies on three assumptions, none of which are realistic:
Too late to plant winter crops
First, to grow crops in winter without irrigation, soils need to retain enough residual moisture from the rainy season. The Malawi government says that purchasing $45.2 million worth of maize seeds and fertilizers for smallholder farmers with access to shallow marshes (dambo) and riverbank land will enable them to grow 210,000 tonnes of maize this winter, more than a third of their total need.
But after a drought, that’s not the case. Even in years with good summer rains, maize that relies on residual moisture must be planted by June. This year, the soil is too dry in most parts of Malawi. Only low-water crops, such as sweet potatoes, are grown using the residual moisture. But this is standard practice in Malawi, leaving little room for expansion.
Second, the appeal assumes that a large amount of maize will be grown under irrigation. The government plans to supply $25.5 million worth of seeds and fertilizer to medium-sized farmers, the Malawi Defence Force, the Greenbelt Authority Megafarms and other institutions to grow 218,000 tons of maize (just over a third of the maize needed) using existing irrigation systems. The government also wants to contract large commercial farms to grow 100,000 tons of maize, which the National Food Reserve Agency will purchase for $48.5 million.
Read more: El Niño disaster: Government knows what’s coming but isn’t prepared – what needs to change
This comes at a large opportunity cost, as any functioning irrigation facilities are already being used to grow other crops, often for export.
Third, the government said it would rehabilitate about 5,800 hectares of dilapidated irrigation systems and irrigate an additional 12,800 hectares, at a cost of US$31.3 million, which it believes will produce enough maize to make up about 15 percent of the shortfall.
This is the type of investment that, if done properly, will increase agricultural production capacity for years to come. But repairing irrigation systems takes months, and building new ones takes years. It will not help prevent famine this year, nor is it an emergency response.
Food imports are necessary
The 2024 corn harvest was significantly reduced due to drought. Per Anders Pettersson/Getty Images
Importing food is the only viable option left to ensure Malawians do not go hungry this year. We have previously argued that food should be imported as soon as it became clear that Malawi would not be able to harvest enough crops.
This needs to be done before food prices start to rise – which usually happen after each major harvest – and before they face stiff competition in the regional market from Zambia and Zimbabwe, which are experiencing maize shortages this year.
Donor support is key
Unfortunately, the government does not have the resources to import the needed grains, so donors would need to step in to avert famine. But donors may be hesitant to cover the costs, fearing that a short-term humanitarian response will undermine longer-term investments in strengthening the resilience of the food system, due to competition for limited resources and a diminished sense of urgency for a durable solution.
But now is not the right time to discuss how Malawi could better cope with future disasters or whether aid is hindering the reforms needed to make the country more resilient. Not being able to import food would have dire consequences.
In a normal year, hunger costs Malawi more than 10 percent of its GDP in lost productivity, poor health and missed school. Without humanitarian assistance, this year’s losses will be even worse. The poor, whose resilience is already severely compromised, will pay a survival price in the form of depleted assets (they have to sell what little they have to buy food), poor health and poor quality education, undoing years of economic progress. Children in particular are likely to suffer lifelong cognitive and physical losses when they go hungry.
This cannot be allowed to happen. We must first confront the immediate crisis, learn from it, and then make needed reforms and long-term investments, not the other way around.
The analysis summarized in this article was contributed by Mazvita Chidwa (Associate Scientist in the CIMMYT Sustainable Agri-Food Systems Research Team in Lilongwe), Simon Denhere (WFP Deputy Representative in Malawi), George Phiri (FAO Assistant County Representative in Malawi) and Rodwell Musonde (Director of Agricultural Planning Services at the Malawi Ministry of Agriculture until his retirement in March 2024).
