CBRT assessment by overseas institutions: When will interest rate cuts start?
“Early interest reduction may be granted.”
In its assessment of Barclays, the report noted that the CBRT continued to maintain a hawkish tone in its statement, drawing attention to possible early discounting and saying:
“As expected, the CBRT left the policy rate unchanged at 50 percent. We expect the rate to remain at this level until January 2025, although an earlier cut could occur in the last quarter of 2024 if the deleveraging process is stronger than we expect.”
Morgan Stanley talks 2025
“The central bank’s decision to keep rates unchanged and its hawkish tone support our expectation of a tight monetary stance for an extended period of time. We expect policy rates to remain on hold until the end of the year, with rate cuts due to begin in the first quarter of 2025,” Morgan Stanley said, noting that the cuts are due to occur in 2025.
JP Morgan commented, “The CBRT left rates unchanged at 50%, as expected, but maintained its hawkish comments about its readiness to tighten if there are risks to rising inflation. We maintain our end-2024 policy rate forecast at 45%. We expect the CBRT to cut rates in November and December.”
Source: Bloomberg HT
