Wholesale prices for whole frozen turkeys are dropping in time for the 2023 holiday season. Prices for frozen whole chickens (chickens typically served for holiday dinners) averaged $1.27 per pound in August 2023. Prices fell further to $1.25 per pound in September, a 43 cent year-over-year drop and the lowest monthly average price since July 2021. The price reprieve comes in the wake of a 2022 outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) that caused major losses to commercial turkey flocks. Turkey production is expected to reach 5.222 billion pounds in 2022, down 6% from approximately 5.558 billion pounds in 2021, while prices rose to historic highs. The outbreak lasted for more than a year, ending in April 2023. Even if the outbreak had continued into the spring, turkey production had already begun to recover from its mid-2022 lows, when population declines caused a sharp decline in turkey numbers. Production has been above previous year levels, in part due to increased bird slaughter since April 2023. Although HPAI was detected in commercial turkey flocks in early October 2023, it is not expected to have a significant impact on turkey availability for the 2023 holiday season. This graph is taken from USDA, Economic Research Service, Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook, September 2023.
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