By Cagil KasapogluBBC World Service28 March 2024
Updated March 31, 2024
Image source, NECATI SAVAS/EPA-EFE
image captionFor 25 years until 2019, Erdogan’s AK Party was in charge of Istanbul and Ankara
Millions of people in Turkey voted in an election to decide who will rule the country’s largest city and whether President Recep Tayyip Erdogan can wrest power back from the opposition.
Istanbul, Turkey’s economic and social powerhouse, was won by the opposition five years ago under popular mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, ending the president’s long electoral victory.
Now, Erdogan, who was born in this megacity of 16 million people, wants the city back and is on the brink of a vote.
Whatever happens in Istanbul is seen as a key test of whether the opposition can pose a serious threat to Mr. Erdogan and his AK Party in the next presidential election in four years.
“Istanbul is his hometown. Losing Istanbul to the opposition in the 2019 local elections was devastating for him,” said Ihsan Akhtas, a professor of communication at Istanbul Medipol University.
Istanbul is where he grew up and before entering politics in the 1970s sold a sesame-seed pastry called simitz.
Image source, Getty Images
image captionRecep Tayyip Erdogan began his political career in Istanbul as a member of an Islamist party
He led the youth branch of an Islamist party in the Beigruten district and rose through the ranks to become mayor, prime minister, and eventually Turkey’s president.
Although President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan secured victory for a third term in last year’s presidential election, the main opposition party, the secular CHP, lost control of the major cities it dramatically recaptured five years ago. I would like to maintain it. Not only Istanbul, but also the capital Ankara and the tourist city Antalya.
Until 2019, the ruling AK Party and its Islamist predecessors had ruled the two largest cities for 25 years.
In Istanbul, opposition parties defeated the candidate twice after the AKP claimed fraud and authorities ordered him to run again.
image captionEkrem Imamoglu is seen as Erdogan’s biggest challenger
“Although the opposition lost to President Erdogan in last year’s presidential election, there is still a strong link between Istanbul’s victory and Turkey’s victory,” said Seda Demiralp, a political science professor at Issyk University in the city.
“If Imamoglu is able to hold on to Istanbul, the opposition will still have high hopes for the upcoming 2028 presidential elections.”
Ihsan Aktas agreed that the winner would have enormous influence beyond Istanbul, saying, “If they have the support of Istanbul, they will become a direct actor in national politics, and globally too.”
The city is home to one-fifth of Turkey’s approximately 85 million people and has a diverse electorate with different political, ethnic, religious and economic backgrounds.
Controlling Istanbul would give it control over important parts of Turkey’s economy, including trade, tourism, and finance.
The candidate selected to run for Erdogan’s party in Istanbul is former Environment and Urbanization Minister Murat Kurum, 47. But it may as well be a race between Ekrem İmamoğlu and Erdogan.
Mr. İmamoğlu, 52, a former businessman who rose to prominence as mayor of the city’s little-known middle-class district Beylikduz, is seen as Erdogan’s biggest challenger in decades.
Image source, ERDEM SAHIN/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock
image captionSupporters of Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu attend an election rally in March
“In 2019 we closed our branch and on March 31st [the AKP] It will become history,” he told supporters at a rally in Beylikduz.
Political observers say another victory would boost his political influence and pave the way for a presidential bid in four years.
Ankara’s mayor, Mansour Yabas, is also expected to run in the 2028 elections, and his path to victory in Sunday’s election appears more certain.
For now, Ekrem Imamoglu is focused on his current job.
“I have big dreams for Istanbul. I don’t dream of anything else, but now I just want to make them come true,” he told Turkish daily Cumhuriyet.
During his five years as mayor, Turkey has been hit by an economic crisis, but he has stressed the expansion of the city’s rail network, the expansion of green spaces and a large-scale housing construction project.
But there is another major concern troubling the people of Istanbul.
Two earthquakes in southern Turkey last year killed more than 53,000 people and seismologists have warned that a devastating quake could hit Istanbul at any moment.
Plans to demolish old, dilapidated buildings and build earthquake-resistant replacements have become a top priority for the AKP.
“The name Murat Krum is associated with urban development and has symbolic meaning,” says Demiralp, but even that “may not be enough to ensure victory.”
Image source, EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock
image captionPresident Erdoğan (right) joins Istanbul mayoral candidate Murat Krum (left) at a party rally
President Erdoğan and key ministers have made it their personal goal to retake Istanbul and promised a new era starting March 31st.
“Istanbul will be returned to its true owners,” he promised hundreds of thousands of supporters at a rally in the city.
The 70-year-old has previously said this would be his last election. He is in his third term as president, but under the constitution he cannot rule beyond 2028.
However, he has not yet chosen a successor, and Ihsan Akstas says it will be very difficult to identify who will replace him as AKP leader.
“When you ask pollsters who they expect to replace Mr. Erdogan, no one comes to mind. This is a challenge for the party.”
Image source, Getty Images
Image Caption, Istanbul is Türkiye’s largest city with a population of 16 million people.
That is why Erdogan’s critics believe that retaking Istanbul could be used to consolidate Erdogan’s power at both the national and local levels, and that constitutional changes could give him further terms as president.
In his favour, unlike recent elections, the opposition is no longer united and opinion polls suggest the race in Istanbul could be close.
Ekrem Imamoglu won in 2019 with the support of a six-party coalition: nationalists, secularists, liberals, conservatives, Islamists and, most importantly, Kurds. Istanbul has a large Kurdish population.
But that opposition party collapsed after the president’s defeat last year, and other opposition parties, including the pro-Kurdish DEM party, have fielded their own candidates in the race.
That could undermine Imamoglu’s chances of victory. However, further developments could undermine Murat Krum’s hopes. A new Islamist party called the New Welfare Party could steal votes from him as conservative and religious voters look to alternatives to the AKP.
