The timing and scale of the war between Israel and Hamas has put Turkey and its president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in a difficult situation.
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At first, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, shocked by the violence committed by Hamas, contacted Israeli Isaac Herzog. However, the strength of public support for Hamas in Turkey, the mobilization of Israeli forces, and the start of Israeli airstrikes in the Gaza Strip caused him to change his position almost immediately. The tone of his criticism of Israel’s military actions in the Gaza Strip has gradually become harsher.
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This did not prevent Erdogan from playing a mediation role. He initiated several phone calls with regional leaders, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Missing was US President Joe Biden. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken began touring regional capitals as soon as the crisis erupted, looking for ways to prevent a further escalation. He appears to have deliberately avoided a visit to Ankara, preferring to consult by phone with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. Relations between Biden and Erdogan have been tense for some time. Biden has also limited his contacts with Erdogan and has been reluctant to invite him for a state visit to Washington, for example.
The growing rift between the US and Türkiye
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The current war between Israel and Hamas comes as Turkey and the United States are already at odds on several issues. Most importantly, Washington is supporting the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The SDF is primarily made up of Kurdish fighters and has been a key ally of the United States in the fight against the self-proclaimed Islamic State, also known as ISIS. The standoff reached its worst on October 5, when an American F-16 fighter jet shot down a Turkish drone that came within a few hundred yards of American forces in northern Syria.
The Turkish military has conducted numerous ground and air operations against the Syrian Kurds, which the US government perceives as undermining the fight against the Islamic State. Turkey is adamant that the Syrian Kurdish forces are merely an extension of its own Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which the Turkish government and its allies designate as a terrorist organization. The US-Turkey disagreement over this issue dates back to the emergence of the Islamic State and its 2014 sweep into northern Syria and Iraq. Erdogan rejected US President Barack Obama’s request for assistance in the fight against the terrorist organization, forcing the US to cooperate with Turkey. The US military and the SDF were successful in defeating the Islamic State. However, with no state authority in northern Syria, Washington has stationed around 900 troops there and worked with the SDF to contain the Islamic State. The SDF also maintains the al-Hol camp, which houses around 50,000 people with various ties to the Islamic State.
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Turkey has also recently bristled at the language used by the Biden administration in an Oct. 12 statement renewing its state of emergency in northern Syria. The statement’s language was identical to that issued by U.S. President Donald Trump in 2019, but it did not provoke the same derision in Turkey then. The new White House statement stated:
“The situation in and related to Syria, and in particular the actions of the Turkish government to carry out military attacks in northeastern Syria, undermine the campaign to defeat the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and endanger civilians. Furthermore, it threatens to undermine peace, security, and stability in the region and continues to pose an extraordinary and unusual threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States.”
NATO, fighter jets, aircraft carrier deployment
The two countries are also at odds over Sweden’s membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan used the ratification process to make a series of demands on Sweden, and then agreed to send the membership resolution to the Turkish parliament, which it formally submitted on October 23. Although Sweden has made some concessions, ratification by Turkey is overshadowed by Ankara’s demands. The US government has announced that it will authorize the purchase of new F-16s and modernization kits for existing F-16s in its inventory.
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The Biden administration has strongly supported the request, but it has met stiff resistance in the U.S. Congress, where congressional leaders have made it clear that the F-16 sale is unlikely to be approved unless Turkey ratifies Sweden’s membership. Following the U.S. administration’s critical statement on October 12, congressional efforts to create a link to the F-16 sale, and rising tensions over the Israel-Hamas war, the Turkish parliament, backed by President Erdogan, could delay Sweden’s ratification of membership.
The outbreak of the Gaza conflict has pushed Erdoğan further away from Washington. He was outraged that the United States sent two carrier strike groups to the Eastern Mediterranean, and suggested that the United States did not need to send carriers or play a role in the conflict. He also claimed that the presence of the aircraft carrier was hampering Turkey’s efforts to resolve the crisis. President Erdoğan’s foreign policy discourse increasingly reflects his growing distrust of the West and the United States. Starting with the 2016 coup attempt in Turkey, he has criticized Washington, but has also complained that Turkey’s economic slump is caused by Western (i.e., American) interference and sabotage. However, if you analyze Turkey’s trade statistics, you will find that Turkey’s most important trading partners are Western countries. In 2022, the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom (UK), and 10 European Union countries received almost 43% of Turkey’s exports. In 2021, five countries accounted for almost two-thirds of foreign direct investment in Turkey: the United States, Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.
Support for Hamas
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long supported Hamas, allowing its leaders to visit and meet with its leaders, and refusing to label the group’s actions as terrorism. The Turkish public’s reaction to the current Gaza conflict, inspired by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, is likely to strengthen this relationship. Despite President Erdoğan’s sympathies with Hamas, he is acutely aware that a major fire in the region would be a disadvantage to everyone, including Turkey. This explains why he reportedly warned his Iranian counterpart, Ebrahim Raisi, against acts that escalate tensions.
With no end to the conflict in sight, President Erdogan faces the possibility of further deterioration in relations with Israel and the United States. Demonstrations in Turkey have targeted U.S. facilities, the most important being the Kyuresikreder base in Malatya in southeastern Turkey. The US consulate in Adana, southern Türkiye, was also forced to close. President Erdoğan’s rhetoric toward the United States is partly to blame for these events. Some commentators have suggested that he may have been trying to distance himself from Hamas, but in his Oct. 25 speech he said that Hamas is not a terrorist organization but a group of freedom fighters and “mujahideen” or “mujahideen”. He pointedly stated that they were a group of people fighting for their faith. He also invited all Turkish citizens to the “Greater Palestine” demonstration in Istanbul that he is scheduled to lead on October 28.
Erdogan could have contributed greatly to finding a middle ground in the conflict at first, but he has sidestepped what little trust Washington had in him with fierce anti-American rhetoric, and he appears to have removed himself from US-led negotiations.
