Last May, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan easily secured reappointment as head of state, crushing opposition morale and preventing Erdogan from taking control of the government and leading Turkey further into authoritarianism. This raised concerns among critics.
This weekend, the opposition hit back.
Mr. Erdogan’s opponents won a surprising series of victories in local elections across Turkey on Sunday, increasing the number of cities in the country under their control and further encircling Mr. Erdogan in most of the major cities.
Analysts say such opposition victories could serve as a check on Mr. Erdoğan’s power at home, while also allowing emerging opposition stars to use their huge budgets in major cities to advance their plans by 2028. He said this could allow him to increase his profile in the run-up to the next presidential election, which is expected to take place in 2017.
Turkey’s main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party, won 37.8% of the vote, its highest percentage since 1977, according to preliminary results from state-run Anadolu news agency. The agency reported that Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party won 35.5% of the vote, its worst result in local elections since the party was founded more than 20 years ago.
The result was a blow to Mr. Erdogan, 70, who has been Turkey’s leading politician for more than two decades. He has used his power as prime minister and then president to expand the role of Islam in public life and establish Turkey’s status as an economic and military player, with both the United States and Turkey It also infuriated other NATO allies.
Mr. Erdogan’s critics accuse him of pushing the country toward one-man rule by intimidating the press and co-opting government institutions to serve his party’s interests. His defenders deny he aspires to be a dictator and point to his long history of success in elections widely considered free.
But analysts said Mr. Erdogan’s party’s performance on Sunday showed that many voters were particularly dissatisfied with his management of the economy. A years-long cost-of-living crisis has weakened the country’s currency and soaring inflation has eroded the value of Turks’ salaries and savings accounts.
Mr. Erdogan has for years advocated lowering interest rates to stimulate growth, even as inflation soars above 80% in late 2022.
“Many government voters were disillusioned with the fact that they continued to vote for Mr. Erdoğan without seeing any real improvement in their standard of living,” said Berg Esen, an associate professor of political science at Istanbul’s Sabanci University. said.
This forced some supporters of Mr Erdoğan’s party to stay at home, likely contributing to the opposition’s victory, which Professor Esen described as “truly extraordinary”.
Turkey’s Supreme Electoral Council said turnout was 78%, down from 87% in last May’s presidential and parliamentary elections.
Nevertheless, the Republican People’s Party increased the number of cities it operates from 21 to 35 out of a total of 81 cities. The party’s mayors currently control six of the country’s 10 largest cities, including the top five cities of Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir. , Bursa and Antalya.
According to preliminary results, Mr. Erdoğan’s party captured one of the main cities, Hatay, from the opposition, which was severely damaged by the February 2023 earthquake that killed more than 53,000 people.
Official results are expected to be announced by the Election Commission within the next few days.
Addressing a crowd outside the party’s headquarters in Ankara early Monday, Erdogan acknowledged the loss and called it a “turning point” that required reflection.
“The ballot box was closed and the state had the final say and made the decision,” he said. “We will investigate the reason for this setback.”
In the run-up to last year’s presidential election, Mr. Erdogan repeatedly lobbied the Treasury Department to protect low-income voters from financial hardship, spending lavishly on social assistance and repeatedly raising the minimum wage. However, after winning his election, he changed his policy and appointed an economic team with the power to raise interest rates to rebuild the economy.
However, the government says inflation remains high, reaching 67% in February. Some outside economists say real interest rates are even higher.
Selva Demiralp, an economics professor at Istanbul’s Kok University, said the tight economy means Mr Erdogan will be “out of artillery fire” ahead of this weekend’s elections and can no longer rely on public funds to protect voters’ wallets. He said it means he can no longer do it.
“The opposition’s victory is that they are slow to respond to the economic crisis,” she said.
He said that despite his party’s defeat, Mr. Erdogan is likely to stick to more orthodox economic policies in the hope that it will pay off in the long run.
Mr. Erdogan was re-elected last year despite Turkey’s economic problems and accusations that the government failed to act quickly after the February 2023 earthquake, exacerbating the mood of his opponents. The six-party coalition that had united to unseat him has collapsed, and a younger challenger has ousted the opposition’s failed presidential candidate as leader of the main opposition party.
But Sunday’s victory is likely to reinvigorate opposition voters and secure a leadership platform for shaping policy.
In the capital Ankara, incumbent opposition mayor Mansour Yabas defeated his challenger from Erdogan’s party by 28.7 points.
In Istanbul, Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu won by a margin of 11.5 points, defending his seat from a challenger campaigned by Mr. Erdoğan and several government ministers.
The defeat in Istanbul was a particularly hard blow to Mr. Erdogan, given his huge budget, the large number of jobs managed by city hall, and his personal ties to the city. Not only did he grow up there, but he also advanced his own political career by becoming mayor in an upset election in 1994.
Imamoglu, 52,’s victory was the third over a candidate backed by Erdogan, and many Turks have come to see him as a possible presidential candidate.
“Those who cannot understand the message of the nation will ultimately lose,” Imamoglu told supporters outside Istanbul City Hall early Monday.
Tugce Ercetin, an assistant professor of political science at Istanbul Bilgi University, said his campaign centered on economic concerns and a positive message that resonated with voters.
“Voters are punishing actors they see as responsible for the economy,” she says.
When the next election will be held is an open question.
Mr. Erdoğan is in his second of two presidential terms allowed by the constitution, and his term ends in 2028. Weeks before Sunday’s vote, Mr. Erdogan said this would be the “last election.”
But some Turks are seeking legal means for him to continue in office, either by asking parliament to hold early elections so he can run again, or by amending the constitution to allow him to run again. I’m thinking that I might look into it.
Given the opposition’s strong showing on Sunday, opposition leaders are calling for early elections in the hope that they can use the ballot box to unseat Erdogan while he appears vulnerable. There is also a possibility that they will decide to proceed.
Safak Timur contributed to the report.
