Written by Celyn Gillitt BBC World Service
February 5, 2023
Image source, Getty Images
image captionPolls suggest Erdogan’s AKP could lose its parliamentary majority
“Last year I was paying 4,500 lire ($240, £195) in rent, but my landlord said he had to raise the price,” Seda said. “We doubled the amount we paid, but he still asked us to leave the apartment.”
She is one of the millions of Turks struggling to make ends meet in a country where the official inflation rate is over 57%.
Against this backdrop of economic turmoil, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has announced elections for May 14th, aiming to remain in power after 20 years at the top.
The parliamentary and presidential elections will be held on the same day, and opinion polls predict that both elections will be very close.
Seda continues to look for an apartment, but the rent has soared to 30,000 lire and her income has not kept up. “It’s very disturbing. It’s like trying to survive in a jungle.”
President Erdogan has announced record public spending, hoping to stimulate the economy.
His plan also includes energy subsidies, doubling the minimum wage and increasing pensions, as well as the opportunity for more than 2 million people to retire immediately.
Image source, Getty Images
image captionIn May last year, a kilogram of tomatoes sold at the market cost around 8 to 10 lira.Currently the tag is at 25 lira
But one elderly man shopping for groceries at a street stall in Istanbul was less impressed.
“This year we suddenly became poor. I think the inflation rate in the city is 600%, but pension increases are only 30%,” he said.
Some analysts have argued that moving up the election date could allow Erdogan to take advantage of stimulus checks.
But Atila Yesilada, a consultant at Global Source Partners Turkey, believes it is too soon for inflation to eat up wage increases.
“Unless further adjustments to wages and pensions are made, the gratitude currently felt by some voters will fade quickly,” he said.
President Erdoğan’s main opposition party is a coalition of centre-left and right-wing parties known as the ‘Table of Six’.
They promised to change his economic policies, introduce tighter monetary policy and restore central bank independence.
However, they have not yet chosen a presidential candidate.
A decision is likely to be made on February 13, with many expecting Kemal Kilicdaroglu, leader of Turkey’s main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), to be chosen.
Another person in the news is Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu.
Last month, a court banned the mayor from political activity and sentenced him to nearly three years in prison for insulting election officials. The mayor dismissed the matter as politically motivated. The mayor has appealed the ruling and he continues to serve in his capacity.
Image source, SOPA image
image captionEkrem Imamoglu rose to prominence in 2019 after winning a landslide victory in June’s re-run Istanbul mayoral election
Sonar Cagaptay of the Washington Institute think tank believes attempts to remove Istanbul’s mayor from politics could backfire.
He points out that Erdogan himself was in a very similar situation in the 1990s, when he was a popular and successful mayor of Istanbul, but was forced out of politics by Turkey’s secular courts.
“That made him a martyr, a hero, and he made a spectacular comeback,” Cagaptay said.
It is Türkiye’s third largest political party and could play the role of kingmaker.
The Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) is pro-Kurdish and was stripped of state funding by Turkey’s Supreme Court in January and was at risk of being banned for its ties to Kurdish militias.
Former co-leader Selahattin Demirtas has been imprisoned since 2016 on charges of “spreading terrorist propaganda.”
Image source, Getty Images
image captionCritics say Selahattin Demirtas is being jailed because of his growing popularity among voters
The party’s vice-chairman, Hishal Ozoi, admitted that authorities could shut down the party. But he says that won’t stop his party or those who support it.
“Even if it were banned, people would find a way to participate in elections using other political parties,” he said.
If the presidential election advances to the second round, the HDP’s support is likely to determine Turkey’s next president.
No one has yet officially announced their candidacy for president, including Erdoğan himself. It is even being debated whether he should be allowed to run since he has already been elected twice, which is the limit.
Image source, Getty Images
image captionPresident Erdogan has yet to formally announce whether he will run for the next term
Article 101 of the Turkish Constitution states that “a person may be elected President of the Republic for a maximum of two terms.”
“If President Erdogan wants to run, he will run,” Cagaptay said.
“His brand is that he is the underdog fighting the elite, so if someone comes forward and says he cannot be forgiven, it might actually help his case. This is the kind of thing that has helped Erdoğan in the past. It’s a discussion.”
There are many issues at stake in the upcoming elections, and opposition parties argue that they will have to choose between strengthening dictatorship and strengthening democracy. The ruling AKP claims that only they can lower the cost of living and maintain stability.
For Erdogan, who has led Turkey since 2003, first as prime minister and then as directly elected president, the vote will determine whether his rule lasts three decades.
