At sunset, a ferry boat glides across the waters of the Golden Horn with the Suleymaniye Mosque and the city of Istanbul, Turkey in the background.
Volkswagen Photo | Universal Images Group | Getty Images
That’s the last thing Erdoğan wants, as his conservative, Islamist-sympathetic Justice and Development Party (abbreviated in Turkey as the AK Party or AKP) is likely to win municipal elections against Imammoğlu. He has already witnessed a crushing defeat by the secular and moderate Republican People’s Party (CHP). President Erdoğan was furious at the election results and called for new elections, but Imamoglu defeated the AK Party’s mayoral candidate by an even wider margin.
An opposition victory on Sunday could take the country in a new direction and pose a major challenge to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his AK Party’s decades-long hold on power. Erdoğan himself rose to fame as mayor of Istanbul in the 1990s before being elected president. He is currently pushing hard to support his party’s mayoral candidate, Murat Krum, a 47-year-old former Minister of Environment and Urbanization.
“Istanbul stands out as a very important point in the political struggle,” Arda Tunka, an Istanbul-based Politiyor economist, told CNBC. This city is home to 16 million people, and it is more populous than 20 of the 27 countries of the European Union.
And Turkey, the second largest military in NATO and a country located at the economic and political crossroads between East and West, has played a prominent mediating role in recent conflicts such as the Ukraine-Russia war, and has made large-scale investments. The company is increasing its position as a global player. and trade deals with wealthy Gulf Arab states.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy shakes hands with Turkish President Tayyip Erdoğan during a press conference in Istanbul, Turkey, March 8, 2024.
Umit Bektas | Reuters
“Many countries in the world are ruled by cabinets of ministers, but Istanbul, which is larger than many of those countries, is ruled by mayors. This is strange, but it shows how important it is to win Istanbul. “It shows,” Tunka said.
Major cities in Turkey, such as Istanbul and the capital Ankara, will be the hot spots for races. Opposition parties won both elections in 2019.
“Turkey’s local elections are often a political barometer ahead of the presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for 2028,” said Kristin Longi, Middle East and North Africa analyst at risk consultancy RANE. Ta.
“Candidates’ platforms in local elections reflect local issues that affect the daily lives of Turkish citizens, but local elections could be a stepping stone to the next presidential election.”
Hakan Akbas, senior advisor at Albright Stonebridge Group, called the election “a turning point that could reshape the political map, influence economic policy, and shape the quality of urban life.” Ta.
“The stakes are high, as the outcome could either solidify AKP supremacy or pave the way for a more pluralistic political landscape,” he said.
Despite years of economic turmoil, inflation of more than 65% and the Turkish lira at an all-time low against the dollar, Mr. Tunka is confident that President Erdogan’s AK Party, which has long been dominant at the national level, will be I think he will win the election. He attributes the cause to the opposition parties themselves, saying they are the biggest enemy.
“The main challenge for the opposition is weak politicians and chaotic politics. The main problem for the opposition is the opposition itself,” he said.
Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu speaks during the May 19th Ataturk Memorial, Youth and Sports Day celebration held at the Maltepe Event Area in Istanbul, Turkey, on May 19, 2023.
Hakan Akgun | Getty Images
The main opposition coalition was formed in May 2023 with the aim of unseating President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan from the presidency in Turkey’s last general election. The result was a crushing defeat and disappointment for the opposition party led by Imammoğlu’s CHP.
While some in Turkey have criticized the popular İmamoğlu himself, now 52, being barred from running as a candidate by the Turkish judiciary, Mr. Erdogan’s opponents say the move is The president claims that the move was orchestrated by the president to reduce competition with him. The AK Party claims the ban was due to tax-related crimes, but CHP supporters say it was purely political.
“Although the AKP’s governance is very bad and Turkey’s economic situation is deteriorating, the AKP will win again in the next elections,” Tunka asserted.
Rane’s Ronzi thinks the contest is more of a toss-up.
“Polling data for the Istanbul mayoral election shows that the two leading candidates for mayor are in a close race,” she said. The opposition is now more divided than ever before, with multiple opposition candidates potentially splitting the vote.
Still, she said, “polling data from some key races shows that the CHP has significant support in these municipalities. “It will show that political divisions between opposition parties can be overcome.”
These candidates “are likely to be positioned as potential presidential candidates ahead of the 2028 presidential election due to their ability to garner public support.” [and] Let’s unite opposition voters,” she added.
Analysts, meanwhile, are focused on how the results will shape Erdogan’s next actions and whether they will make an already unequal political playing field even less democratic.
In its 2023 Free Countries in the World report on Turkey, the nonprofit organization Freedom House says that President Erdoğan and his AK Party have “increasingly increased their influence in recent years through constitutional reforms and the imprisonment of opponents and critics. “They are becoming more authoritarian and consolidating great power.”
“The deepening economic crisis and upcoming elections are giving governments new incentives to suppress dissent and limit public debate,” the report added.
CNBC has reached out to the Turkish presidential palace for comment.
Mr. Akbas pointed out that the national media is crucial on the side of the AK Party and Mr. Erdoğan.
“The government controls about 90% of the media. This control tilts the public conversation in its favor, and opposition parties struggle to communicate with voters through mainstream media,” he said. He added that Turkish law “currently allows journalists to be imprisoned.” Imposing fines of up to three years on social media users who share “false” or “misleading” information would threaten the democratic foundations of free information and debate. ”
For Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkey Studies Program at the Washington Institute, the defeat of President Erdoğan’s party may only strengthen rather than neutralize those trends.
“If the president’s allies win back the city from the opposition on March 31, the president may feel more secure and able to focus on more aggressive legacy-building efforts,” he wrote in a think tank op-ed. “But a defeat could lead him to further intensify his xenophobic and populist policies at home and abroad.”
