Major concerns
The state of Jammu and Kashmir is surrounded by the Himalayas and has a number of worthy tourist destinations. The climate is a major attraction for tourists from across the world. The pleasant and favourable atmosphere of the state has led to the tourism industry growing many fold. The tourism sector contributes to the economy and provides livelihood opportunities to around 20% of the population. The state has a distinct niche in leisure tourism in the Kashmir Valley and pilgrimage tourism in Kashmir and Jammu.
Tourism in Kashmir is based on weather and climatic conditions, which are prerequisites for selecting a favorable location. Therefore, the identified projected climate changes may severely impact the tourism industry through increased infrastructure damage, additional emergency preparations, and business interruptions. Extreme weather and climatic events almost always result in widespread adverse human, material, economic, or environmental impacts. Climate projections predict future changes in temperature and other important climatic characteristics, but they may manifest in different ways. According to the IPCC, extreme high temperatures, heat waves, and heavy rain events, as currently seen, are likely to occur more frequently.
Regional climate variations and extreme weather events can therefore affect the popularity of any tourist destination.The tourism sector also contributes to climate change through greenhouse gas emissions from tourist transport and accommodation in various destinations.
Currently, there is no restriction on tourist inflow to almost all tourist places in Kashmir and reckless and unplanned tourism activities are being seen taking place.With the current weather pattern, it is feared that biological interference, which is casting a large shadow over the tourism industry, may have the worst impact on this industry.
The unplanned and unprecedented growth of tourism is having severe and detrimental effects on the local environment. The construction of huge cement concrete infrastructure in these tourist destinations is a major contributor to climate change. No Environmental Impact Assessments have been carried out in our tourist destinations and no Environmental Management Plans have been implemented. The influx of tourists beyond the carrying capacity of the location is putting enormous pressure on existing resources and infrastructure.
Rising pollution load and siltation have raised safety concerns besides putting pressure on drinking water resources. Lack of collection and disposal mechanisms for solid and liquid waste due to lack of proper treatment systems, increasing congestion in cities and lack of adequate transportation facilities are leading to the collapse of an already fragile system.
Seasonal variations and climate extremes are direct impacts of climate change. It is important to remember that the suitability of a tourism destination depends heavily on climate and seasonal variations. Climate change studies predict many climate extremes, including increased precipitation resulting in floods, torrential rains, droughts, landslides, storm intensity, and avalanches. These climate extremes can impact the tourism industry through increased damage to infrastructure, increased need for emergency response, increased operational costs (insurance, backup water and power systems, evacuations, etc.), and business interruption.
Indirect impacts on the tourism sector include deterioration in the quality of available water, including contamination of surface water sources, increased solid and liquid waste, loss of biodiversity, reduced landscape aesthetics, increased natural disasters, damage to infrastructure and increased incidence of vector-borne diseases, which will affect the tourism industry to varying degrees.
Despite tourism being one of the oldest and longest running industries, structural and institutional weaknesses are felt and observed. A key issue regarding tourism is the carrying capacity of all tourist destinations. The analysis also indicates infrastructure gaps that may worsen under the projected climate change models.
Carrying capacity assessment is a key parameter and preparation of Environmental Management Plan (EMP) should be undertaken immediately based on physical and ecological indicators like fixed factors (ecological carrying capacity, assimilation capacity) and flexible factors (infrastructure systems like water supply, electricity, transport etc.) and socio-demographic indicators indicating social and demographic issues important to the local community related to tourism growth. Political-economic indicators indicate the impact of tourism on local economic structure, activities etc. including competition with other sectors. The main focus here is to study the existing carrying capacity and carrying capacity of various tourist destinations in Kashmir tourism circuit.
A key challenge is therefore to develop coherent policies and strategies that decouple tourism growth from increasing greenhouse gas accumulation and contribute significantly to poverty alleviation and improving livelihoods.
The author is a Srinagar-based climate change expert.
