Turkey’s local elections on March 31 were truly game-changing. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) was unable to adequately challenge Republican People’s Party (CHP) candidates in cities like Istanbul and Ankara, finishing second in the total votes. Not only did the CHP come in first, its first victory since the 1977 general election, but it also won in almost every major city in Turkey, including provinces it had not won since 1946. Overall, the elections have given new energy to the opposition and placed Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu at the center of Turkish politics.
In stark contrast to the widespread disillusionment and deep-rooted apathy that characterized last year’s May 14 presidential election, especially among young people, the local elections have so far somewhat deflated the tide of despair.
Election Night
For many, it was a night of surprise. The CHP won 36 of Turkey’s 81 municipalities, making big gains in many of Erdogan’s strongholds. The CHP won 38% of the national vote, slightly beating the presidential party’s 35%, marking the CHP’s biggest electoral victory since Erdogan came to power more than two decades ago.
Turkey’s recent economic problems have played a major role, favoring the opposition.
Several factors have influenced this political upheaval. Turkey’s recent economic crisis played a major role, tilting the balance in favor of the opposition. Turkey has been plagued by serious fiscal problems since 2018, including skyrocketing inflation and a lack of foreign exchange reserves. These problems, combined with Erdogan’s austerity policies, have hit ordinary citizens’ wallets hard and led to growing dissatisfaction with the government’s economic policies.
Opposition parties have seized on the discontent, criticizing Erdogan’s economic policies and promising to increase transparency and effectiveness in public spending and local governance. Istanbul’s Prime Minister Imamoglu has implemented several policies to help those struggling with the tough economic times, including setting up restaurants offering cheap, high-quality meals, providing subsidized milk to schoolchildren and offering free public transport to mothers with children under the age of four.
For the CHP, the leadership shake-up in November was crucial: the election of new CHP leader Ozgur Ozer, along with key opposition figure Ekrem İmamoğlu and his team, injected new energy and direction into the party, striking a chord with voters.
Despite the element of surprise to many, including international observers, the mood at CHP headquarters on election night was visibly upbeat. “The CHP has made thorough preparations for this election and devised a strategy based on solid data collected from different districts across Turkey,” said Nezi Onur Kuru, head of research at the CHP’s Election Strategy Office. In Istanbul, cooperation with the DEM party through an informal coalition helped Imamoglu secure more votes, while also securing a seat for the CHP in the city council, Kuru said.
Essentially, Kul stressed that those inside CHP headquarters had predicted the election outcome, given the continuous polling that had been conducted during the election period. The new leadership highlighted the CHP’s commitment to change and its readiness to govern, and it won big. But the CHP was not the only winner on election night.
Prospects for a new party
The rise of a new far-right Islamist party, the New Welfare Party (YRP), had a major impact on the elections, disillusioning AKP supporters who were unhappy with the government’s economic policies and continued trade between Turkey and Israel. Despite strong pressure from President Erdogan to align with the AKP, the YRP emerged as a strong force, essentially taking a significant number of votes away from the AKP.
The People’s Equality Democratic Party (DEM), successor to the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), has managed to reverse a decline in support since the 2015 elections. This success contrasts with the failure of the AKP-led government to resort to trusteeship politics. Despite attempts to criminalize the DEM, the Kurdish opposition remains active. DEM’s performance in local elections, winning in 12 municipalities and increasing its votes in others, reflects dissatisfaction with trusteeship politics among Kurds.
A large proportion of supporters of the ruling AKP-MHP coalition did not vote, likely in protest. Despite an increase in voter registration, the number of people who voted was the same as in the previous elections, indicating a lack of enthusiasm for the elections. The low turnout suggests underlying dissatisfaction among AKP voters, mainly due to the ongoing economic and political crisis.
For President Erdogan, the election marked a reversal of fortunes, dropping the AKP to second place for the first time since its formation, a result that dealt a major blow to the AKP’s image and relegated it to Turkey’s second largest party.
Imamoglu effect
Istanbul and its regions were particularly important in these elections: the CHP’s capture of the city council will remove an obstacle for Ekrem Imamoglu and pave the way for new projects and more effective governance than in the past five years, when AKP lawmakers blocked numerous policies, including the procurement of new taxis for the city.
With a significant portion of Istanbul’s districts (26 out of 39) now under CHP control, impactful projects are now possible in the capital region.The economic challenges highlight how important local governance is, as municipalities are key to providing basic services and promoting economic opportunity.
The long-term impact of the election on the political landscape is yet to be seen, but tough days seem ahead for Erdogan and the AKP. Imamoglu has held onto his position with a landslide victory in the recent mayoral elections and has emerged as a likely contender for the upcoming presidential elections, despite Erdogan campaigning vigorously for the AKP. The president’s attempt to retake Turkey’s largest city was marked by high state media attention for AKP candidate Murat Kurm and efforts by his cabinet ministers to negotiate directly with Istanbul residents.
Imamoglu’s victory marks a turning point. Kemal Buyukcel, a senior analyst at the CHP’s election strategy room, attributes her success to her popular policies in Istanbul and her ability to appeal to both conservative and Kurdish voters beyond the CHP’s social democratic base (which typically accounts for 25% of voters). Buyukcel attributes her success to her emphasis on impactful policies over grand public relations projects, as well as her magnetic personality.
Turkey’s local elections will herald a period of political recalibration in the country ahead of the next presidential elections, scheduled for four years from now.
Turkey’s local elections herald a period of political recalibration in the country, with the next presidential election four years away. The shift will prompt the international community to reassess its stance towards Turkey in light of emerging leaders and a changing political landscape. The opposition’s big win provides morale, hope and encouragement, especially for those concerned about the erosion of democratic principles in Turkey. For President Erdogan, the challenge ahead will be to tackle the economy, which is in desperate need of intervention and has a tough road ahead.
The views expressed in these articles are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official position of the Wilson Center.
