Istanbul’s mayor launched a bruising re-election bid against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his ruling party early Monday, fighting off a widespread campaign by the president and his government and keeping Turkey’s largest city and economic capital in opposition hands.
Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu’s strong showing has brought him closer to a third victory over President Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party and cemented his status as an opposition star, seen by many Turks as a likely presidential contender.
Partial results showed Imamoglu defeating ruling party candidate Murat Kurm by a large margin, with the state-run Anadolu news agency giving him 50 percent of the vote to Kurm’s 40 percent, with 96 percent of the ballot boxes counted.
The opposition was on track to make major gains in other local elections across Turkey. Primary elections on Monday gave it control of the four biggest cities – Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir and Antalya – as well as the fifth city, Bursa, and several smaller towns.
By early Monday morning, more than 90% of ballot boxes had been counted in most districts, and official results are expected to be released by the Supreme Election Commission in the coming days.
“Istanbul has sent a message and finished the job,” Imamoglu told supporters gathered outside City Hall early Monday. “Tomorrow morning we will turn a new page.”
Addressing supporters outside his party’s headquarters in the capital, Ankara, Erdogan did not acknowledge defeat in any specific election but did acknowledge the party’s poor performance.
“The ballot box has been closed and the people have made the final decision,” he said. “We will investigate the reasons for this setback.”
Turkish citizens elected mayors and other local government officials across the country on Sunday, but much of the attention was focused on Istanbul because of its size and political and economic importance.
“These elections will determine the nature of political competition in Turkey for years to come,” said Sinan Ulgen, director of the Istanbul-based research institute Edam.
A victory for Imamoglu could reinvigorate anti-Erdogan opposition forces and propel the mayor forward into the next presidential elections scheduled for 2028, where he could face off against Erdogan.
The vote came amid a protracted cost-of-living crisis that has seen the value of Turkey’s currency plummet and many feel poorer. It also saw Erdogan re-elected in presidential and parliamentary elections in May, dashing the hopes of an opposition coalition that had joined forces to oust him.
Erdogan won the election despite widespread voter anger over inflation that has soared to more than 80 percent and criticism of the government’s failure to respond quickly to a deadly earthquake in southern Turkey in February 2023 that killed more than 53,000 people.
The opposition’s defeat damaged morale and the coalition collapsed, but many opposition voters now see Imamoglu as the only person who can defeat Erdogan’s party, even predicting he could become Turkey’s next president.
Istanbul, a city of some 16 million people straddling the Bosphorus Strait that separates Europe and Asia, generates much of Turkey’s economic output. The capital region employs some 90,000 people, many of them in municipal corporations whose directors are appointed by the mayor. This gives the mayor and his allies a great opportunity to reward their supporters with city jobs and contracts.
The race was also personal.
Mr. Erdogan, 70, grew up in Istanbul, where his father worked as a ferry captain, and his political career soared when he served as mayor from 1994 to 1998, winning an unexpected election victory. Many residents praised him for a hands-on approach to governance that focused on quality-of-life issues in the ancient city, cleaning up polluted roads and waterways and expanding water and sewer networks.
Erdogan has held the prime ministerial and presidency roles, and while technically based in the capital, Ankara, he frequently speaks of his love for Istanbul, long considered Turkey’s jewel with its rich history, cosmopolitan elite and burgeoning tourism industry.
Erdogan’s party maintained control of the city for most of the 25 years since he was elected.
That’s why it was such a major blow to Mr Erdogan’s party in 2019 when the 52-year-old Imamoglu defeated its own candidate. Mr Erdogan’s party alleged election fraud and Turkey’s electoral commission ordered fresh elections.
Imamoglu won this election by an even larger margin.
To reclaim the city, Erdogan strongly supported Kurm, a former urban and environmental minister in Erdogan’s government and now a member of parliament for his party.
Mr. Kurm, 47, pitched himself as a hands-on technocrat who would expand and transform Istanbul’s neighborhoods to protect residents from earthquakes, a major concern for the city, with seismologists warning that a major quake could hit Istanbul in the near future, damaging hundreds of thousands of buildings.
In a lengthy speech at a massive election rally last Sunday, Erdogan accused Imamoglu of using the city to gain higher office.
“Istanbul is at a crossroads,” he said. “On the one hand, there are those who say ‘only me’ and on the other hand, there are those who say ‘only Istanbul.'”
Many at the rally spoke at length about their love for Erdogan and his handling of the country’s affairs, without mentioning Kurm.
“We came here to support President Erdogan,” said garment factory worker Ercan Kilici, 49. “He is developing our country and we want the country to move forward.”
At another smaller rally a few days later, Imamoglu addressed people on the street from his campaign bus, talking about wastewater treatment, parking, free transport cards and milk for low-income families.
He pointed out that not only Erdogan but also several ministers from his government had turned up in Istanbul to support Kurm, positioning himself as the underdog.
“They want to take back Istanbul,” he said. “From whom? From the state itself! The subway you built, the subway I built, it’s all state property. They think that the positions and offices they’ve been elected to are their property.”
Among the crowd, Suna Hisman, 40, and her sister cheered the mayor’s witty remarks and waved Turkish flags.
“We love him,” she said, “we support him, and God willing, he will be our president.”
Turkey’s next general elections are scheduled for 2028, when Erdogan’s term expires, but some Turks expect he will try to stay in power longer. He is currently in the second of two presidential terms allowed by the constitution, but he could run for re-election if parliament calls for early elections or he could seek constitutional changes.
Erdogan’s critics accuse him of undermining Turkish democracy by using his government to silence dissent, hijack the judiciary and intimidate the press.
Erdogan and his supporters point to his and his party’s long record of electoral success and reject the idea that he aspires to be a dictator.
Grusin Herman contributed reporting.
