Bryce Turan has stolen 26 bases so far this season and has only been caught once. His base running prowess is often talked about, but it’s not just his incredible ability to steal bases. Turan hits extra bases, gets infield hits, avoids double plays, does it all. I wonder if Turan is going to have the best base running season in franchise history.
To determine that, we need to set a baseline and figure out what the best seasons for a base runner were in team history. The first way to analyze this is to just look at stolen base numbers.
The franchise record for stolen bases in a season was actually set in the only season the team was not the Brewers. In 1969, during the franchise’s only season as the Seattle Pilots, Tommy Harper stole 73 bases in 91 attempts. The record has not been broken since. Here are the top 10, along with their success rates:
Tommy Harper 1969: 73/91 (80.2%) Scott Podsednick 2004: 70/83 (84.3%) Jonathan Villar 2016: 62/80 (77.5%) Pat Listach 1992: 54/72 (75%) Paul Molitor 1987: 45/55 (81.8%) Jean Segura 2013: 44/57 (77.2%) Scott Podsednick 2003: 41/55 (74.5%) Paul Molitor 1982: 41/50 (82%)
Paul Molitor, 1983: 41/49 (83.7%)
Paul Molitor, 1988: 41/51 (80.4%)
Darryl Hamilton, 1992: 41/55 (74.5%)
These are the most stolen base seasons in franchise history. But the number of stolen bases doesn’t tell the whole story. Among the most stolen base seasons, which season had the highest stolen base percentage? Below are the top five stolen base percentage seasons in franchise history where a player successfully stole at least 20 bases.
Brice Turan, 2024: 26/27 (96.3%) Christian Yelich, 2019: 30/32 (93.8%) Rickie Weeks, 2007: 25/27 (92.6%) Christian Yelich, 2023: 28/31 (90.3%) Tommy Harper, 1971: 25/28 (89.3%)
As you can see, Turan is already at the top of this list this season (it’s also worth noting that Yelich’s 2024 season saw him make 14 of 15 attempts for a success rate of 93.3%, so he would make the list if we lowered the bar).
In addition to stolen base data, Baseball Reference and Fangraphs offer “advanced” ways to measure baserunning. At Baseball Reference, you can find the baserunning component of a player’s WAR (Rbaser), while at Fangraphs you can find a stat called “BsR.” Both are comprehensive baserunning statistics that add or subtract value based on not only stolen bases, but also how often a player hits for extra bases or avoids double plays. I feel like the Fangraphs version of the stat is a bit more reliable (and while their methodology is public, it’s hard to track exactly how they calculate Rbaser). So, here are the top 10 seasons in team history by BsR:
Scott Podsednik, 2004: 12.9 BsR, 154 games Tommy Harper, 1969: 8.1, 148 games Rickie Weeks, 2007: 7.3, 118 games
Christian Yelich, 2023: 7.3, 144g Christian Yelich, 2019: 7.2, 130g Carlos Gomez, 2013: 6.4, 147g
Ryan Bruen, 2009: 6.4, 158g Christian Yelich, 2018: 6.3, 147g
Ryan Bruen, 2011: 6.3, 150g
Ricky Weeks, 2010: 6.3, 160g
A few players here added a lot of value as a runner without necessarily stealing a ton of bases – Weeks, for example, stole just 11 in 2010, Braun just 20 in 2009, and Yelich just 22 in 2018 – but we can also see that the seasons at the top of the list overlap with seasons we’ve already looked at, whether they were the most stolen bases or the best stolen base percentage.
Based on all of this data, taking into account stolen bases, stolen base percentage and the most recent numbers available, here is a definitive ranking of the top five baserunning seasons (completed) in franchise history.
Scott Podsednick, 2004: 154 games, 70/83 SB (84.3%), 12.9 BsR, 7 RBs Tommy Harper, 1969: 148 games, 73/91 SB (80.2%), 8.1 BsR, 7 RBs Christian Yelich, 2019: 130 games, 30/32 SB (93.8%), 7.2 BsR, 7 RBs Rickie Weeks, 2007: 118 games, 25/27 SB (92.6%), 7.3 BsR, 5 RBs Christian Yelich, 2023: 144 games, 28/31 SB (90.3%), 7.3 BsR, 6 RBs
So what will Turan do now?
We’ve already seen Turan’s raw numbers. As of the end of the game on Sunday, June 16, Turan has played in 67 of the team’s 71 games, stealing 26 of 27 attempts, a success rate of 96.3%, and is already averaging 5.8 steals and 5 rebounds. Fangraphs’ various projection systems for the remainder of the season are conservative, projecting him to finish the season with 42-44 steals and 7.3-8.8 steals.
But if we make a purely mathematical projection and solve for X for the remainder of the season based on the number of games remaining for the team, here’s what Turan’s baserunning stats look like for the entire season:
153 games played, 59 stolen bases on 62 attempts (95.2%), 13.2 BsR, 11 Rbaser
Those are the best stolen bases and stolen base percentages in Brewers history. They are also the best stolen base percentages of any player in franchise history with the most stolen bases. If Turan steals 59 bases, he’ll be fourth in franchise history, but no player has come close with that success rate. Carlos Gomez stole 40 bases in 2013 with an 85.1% success rate, and is the only player in franchise history to do so. If Turan steals 59 bases with a success rate of 95% or higher, he will defy previous standards for stolen bases and efficiency.
If you don’t go by the Pilots’ numbers, Turan is unlikely to challenge Harper’s franchise record (73) or Podsednik’s Brewers record (70). Turan would have to sacrifice efficiency if he really wanted to challenge those records. But if he keeps up his current pace, he’ll set a new franchise record with a stolen base rate far higher than any other contender, and advanced metrics would suggest he’s had the best season as a baserunner in franchise history.
That’s good enough for me! The answer is yes, Turan could very well be in the midst of one of the best baserunning seasons in franchise history, and that is likely to happen.
