Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had a clear goal in local elections held over Easter weekend: He wanted his conservative, Islamist-leaning Justice and Development Party (AKP) to retake the capital, which it lost to opposition politicians in 2019.
But things did not go according to plan: the AKP failed to regain majorities in Turkey’s major cities and lost support in smaller provincial capitals, most of which were lost to the main opposition, the center-left Republican People’s Party (CHP).
With nearly all votes counted, the CHP won 37.76% of the vote nationwide, according to preliminary figures.
The CHP won in 21 smaller cities and 14 larger ones, including Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, Bursa, Adana and Antalya.
The local elections were seen as a kind of opinion poll for Erdogan’s current government. Turkey’s leader, accustomed to winning, clearly felt the ill-feeling of Turkish voters. The AKP won 35.48% of the vote nationwide. For the first time in its history, it became the second most popular party in Turkey.
Türkiye’s opposition makes big gains in local elections
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Türkiye’s economic problems blamed for AKP’s defeat
Late Sunday night, the 70-year-old Erdogan spoke to supporters in an uncharacteristically quiet crowd rather than his usual energetic demeanor. He praised Turkey’s elections as a positive sign for Turkish democracy and made no threats to the opposition.
“Unfortunately, we did not get the results we wanted,” Erdogan told an audience at the AKP headquarters in Ankara. “Of course, we respect the decision of the people.”
He added that the defeat would be critically assessed and noted that it would not be the end of the AKP but a “turning point”.
Turkey has suffered in recent years from President Erdogan’s economic policies, including keeping interest rates low. Despite tax hikes and other tightening measures, the government has been unable to curb high inflation and the resulting decline in consumer purchasing power. This means the state of the economy will have a major impact on the election campaign.
“The decisive factor for the AKP’s poor performance was precisely the tense economic situation,” said Salim Çebic, a Turkey expert at the Berlin-based German Institute for International and Security Studies (SWP).
During his campaign for parliamentary and presidential elections a year ago, Erdogan gave soft treatment to many people, including pensioners and those on low incomes.
“This time, the treasury was empty and he couldn’t do it,” Çebik told DW. “That led to his defeat.”
President Erdogan appeared calm as he addressed his supporters after the polls had concluded. Photo: Emin Sansar/Anadolu/Picture Alliance
Focus on Istanbul
The Turkish president has personally campaigned from event to event over the past few months to retake Istanbul from the opposition, and he has sent 17 of his ministers to do the same around the country, acting as if they were in an election even though they were not.
Erdogan’s biggest concern was Istanbul, a city of 16 million people that is home to 20 percent of Turkey’s workforce and handles more than half of the country’s imports and exports. The cities of Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, Adana, Antalya and Mugla together account for almost half of Turkey’s economic output.
Istanbul also holds significant symbolic meaning for the Turkish leader, who served as mayor from 1994 to 1998 and during which he himself said, “Whoever controls Istanbul controls the whole country.”
The CHP cannot be stopped.
Yet, despite mobilizing the entire state apparatus, the incumbent government has not succeeded in stopping the opposition. Preliminary figures show that the CHP has a large lead in the three major cities of Ankara, Istanbul and Izmir: 10% in Izmir, 11% in Istanbul and a staggering 28% in Ankara.
In Istanbul, the city’s popular mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, a CHP member, will remain in his position.
“This election marks the end of democratic decline and the return of democracy in Turkey. Istanbul has won,” Imamoglu told supporters.
Observers say the mayor’s victory makes Imamoglu more likely to become Erdogan’s main challenger in the next presidential election, due in four years’ time.
“This is a victory for Imamoglu,” said Emre Erdogan, a political science professor at Istanbul’s Bilgi University. Turkey is politically divided and Imamoglu has managed to appeal to both supporters of the ultranationalist IYI party and those of the pro-Kurdish Democratic Party, formerly the HDP.
“Currently, both he and Ankara Mayor Mansur Yabas are considered possible presidential candidates,” Erdogan noted.
Opposition CHP supporters celebrated late into the night. Photo: Chris McGrath/Getty Images
This is not the end of the AKP
But the scholar does not believe this is the political end for the AKP: the ruling party still has many seats in local councils, giving Erdogan time to consolidate his support before the next elections in 2028.
But analysts acknowledge that Imamoglu could pose a risk. Like the current president, the 52-year-old mayor is originally from the conservative Black Sea region. He has taken Quranic classes and, like Erdogan, values national megaprojects. He can mobilize voters and is also seen as charismatic, sincere and ambitious.
This is why he is the choice of many urban Islamic conservatives and Turkish nationalists: he is not a deliberately polarizing figure and would therefore be an acceptable candidate for many urban Turkish Kurds.
According to the SWP’s Çevik, another winner has emerged after the local elections: the New Welfare Party, led by Fatih Erbakan, son of Necmettin Erbakan, the founder of political Islam in Turkey.
His father is considered one of Turkey’s most influential politicians of the 20th century. Anti-secular and anti-Western, he founded the Milli Golus (or “National Vision”) movement in 1969 with the goal of turning Turkey into an Islamic state and transitioning it from Europe to other Islamic countries.
The movement, although not illegal, is “under surveillance” by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, because it espouses Islamist views.
In that election, Fatih Erbakan’s conservative, Islamist New Welfare Party, which ran its own candidates rather than ally with Erdogan, won mayoral seats in two cities and likely stole votes from the AKP.
“If an alternative to the AKP emerges in the conservative and nationalist sphere, President Erdogan’s room for maneuver will be reduced,” Çevik explained.
It is likely that Erdogan will try to bring the New Welfare Party and the AKP closer together in the future, but to do so, the Turkish president will have to make many concessions.
This story was originally published in German.
