Before investing in a rookie quarterback for your fantasy football team, take a look at how he performed over the past 10 seasons. In this study, we looked at every first-round quarterback from 2013 to 2023, filtered by players who played 10 or more games, and looked at their PPG rankings and raw PPG numbers. The results can provide actionable advice for draftees in 2024 and beyond.
Notes: Lamar Jackson was excluded because he used the gadget for more than half the season, and all veteran quarterbacks who did not play in 10 games were also excluded to give a clearer picture of their actual fantasy impact.
History of rookie quarterbacks in fantasy football
Good stuff
Arguably, it could have been a lot worse. The 22 quarterbacks who played at least 10 games averaged just over 21 QBs and 14.3 points per game. There was a clear trend among the rookies who performed well. They all had rushing floors or came close to breaking records with the pass. Mayfield, Herbert and Stroud led the way through the air, while Murray, Allen and Mariota were threats on the ground.
Fantasy football drafters looking to bet on a rookie quarterback should look for an environment where the rookie will thrive either way: Washington has an OC in Jayden Daniels who has experience coaching Kyler Murray, and Caleb Williams might have the best weapons of any first-round draft pick in history.
Watch: Jayden Daniels Film Study
bad person
When they’re bad, they’re really bad. First, of the 31 quarterbacks selected in the first round from 2013 to 2023, only 22 played more than 10 games. Only nine averaged more than 14 points per game. Essentially, two-thirds were useless in one-QB leagues. There are a variety of reasons for this, including already horribly low hit percentages, weird injuries, and pocket passers simply not getting enough volume to make an impact in fantasy football as they adjust to the league.
First-round draft quarterbacks are hard to bet on, either because of the environment they find themselves in or the individual talent of the player, which is likely part of why they have such a bad impact on their weapons.
Range and case of each quarterback
After all, in a 1QB league, a rookie quarterback is a last-dart throw at best. Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels will both go to the right spots as coaching quarterbacks, but they’re not such a big investment that they’d worry about moving. Drake Maye, Bo Nix and JJ McCarthy are all essentially free and could be bargains in the draft if they have a player who has the same impact as CJ Stroud had for the Texans.
Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Williams is the unanimous best quarterback playing the position and has been more than productive on the ground every week, so if one of the best prospects of the past decade can’t perform, quarterback scouts might just have to give up on the day.
Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
Daniels was third in the SEC in rushing last year — not just among quarterbacks, but among all players. The SEC is a breeding ground for NFL talent, and Daniels showed his potential by rushing for 160 yards against Alabama.
Drake Maye, New England Patriots
Do he have the weapons? Sadly not. But without Daniels, we’d be talking about Maye as a true dual-threat quarterback. Maye has forced 20-plus missed tackles each of the past two seasons and boasts the highest deep passing grade (97.1) I’ve seen among PFF college prospects. Pairing that deep passing with Javon Baker and Jalyn Polk would be a sight to behold.
Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
Sean Payton doesn’t like to attack through the air, which is a good thing for the Knicks after they had an ADOT of under 8 the past two seasons. He has his own moves and should be able to keep the offense on schedule in Denver.
JJ McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings
Sure, he only attempted 482 passes in his three years in college (two of them as a starter), but he’s a promising athlete who can get the ball all over the field, completing just 6.8% of his big-time passes. By comparison, Justin Herbert completed just 5% of his attempts in his senior season at Oregon. Pairing him with Justin Jefferson and Kevin O’Connell can only be a good thing.
Main photo credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
UNIVERSAL RESPONSIBLE GAMBLING DISCLAIMER: 21+. Do you have a gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
