ATHENS, Greece – The issue that has brought Greece and Turkey to the brink of war five times over the decades will be off the agenda during Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to Athens on Thursday.
Greek diplomats told Al Jazeera that the visit was an attempt to rebuild ties with a positive agreement.
“Maritime borders [and Cyprus] “It’s not going to be discussed,” a senior Greek diplomat said. “There’s nothing in place for that to happen.”
Greece and Turkey have been discussing 31 possible areas of cooperation since 2021. This so-called “positive agenda” will be central and will lead to around a dozen agreements, a foreign ministry official told Al Jazeera.
One of the deals is to build a new bridge over the Evros River in Thrace, which marks the border between the two countries, while another is to promote student exchanges, according to the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
While offshore hydrocarbons divide the two neighbours, other forms of energy could unite them: a deal would see the construction of a new electricity interconnection to trade energy.
Other agreements will promote joint efforts between tourism, sports and small and medium-sized enterprises.
“Talks have intensified over the past three months and this shows the political will on both sides to make things work,” the official told Al Jazeera.
Several military agreements were also planned.
“There will be an agreement on a series of confidence-building measures, such as not flying drones over warships while military exercises are taking place,” Angelos Syrigos, a lawmaker from the ruling New Democratic Party, told Al Jazeera.
“The climax will be a treaty of friendship declaring our intention to resolve differences peacefully,” Mr. Syrigos said.
“[Prime Minister] “Mr. Kyriakos, my friend, if you do not threaten us, we will not threaten you,” Erdogan told Kathimerini newspaper in an interview published on the eve of the visit. “Let’s strengthen the relationship of trust between our two countries. Let’s strengthen bilateral cooperation in all fields,” Erdogan said.
Greece’s migration minister recently suggested that an agreement on illegal immigration may also be on the horizon, which is of particular interest to the European Union.
According to the Greek Migration Ministry, the influx of refugees from Turkey to Greece fell by 40 percent in October compared to September, and by a further 30 percent in November.
Overcoming unpleasant events from the past
Erdogan’s last visit to Athens, in December 2017, was a disaster after he and then-Greek President Prokopis Pavlopoulos quarreled over the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne, which established the two countries’ border.
Erdogan and then-Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras then traded blame over the division of Cyprus, with Erdogan blaming Greece for the failure of two attempts to reunify the island in 2004 and 2017.
“The Greek Cypriots promised to resolve the Cyprus issue, but that did not happen,” Erdogan said.
“This issue remains unresolved because of the illegal invasion and occupation of northern Cyprus 43 years ago,” Tsipras replied.
Cyprus is divided between Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot communities after inter-communal clashes in 1964 and a Turkish invasion of the island following a Greek-inspired coup a decade later.
Things only got worse after the 2017 visit: The following year, Turkey declared its “Blue Homelands” policy, claiming sovereign and commercial rights to exploit 462,000 square kilometers (178,400 square miles) of undersea resources in the eastern Mediterranean, much of which Greece also claims under international maritime law.
In 2019, Turkey agreed to develop large swathes of the eastern Mediterranean with Libya, further encroaching on what Greece considers its maritime jurisdiction. The European Union condemned the memorandum as a violation of international law.
Shortly thereafter, Greece informally warned Turkey that it would sink any Turkish research vessel attempting to explore for oil or gas in waters it considered its jurisdiction. Turkey ignored the Greek threat the following January and allowed a Greek vessel, the Oruc Reis, to conduct research southeast of Rhodes for a week.
Greece sent frigates to watch the Oruç Reis but did not attack it. However, the following summer, when the Oruç Reis appeared again, the entire Greek navy was deployed across the Aegean Sea within hours and put on heightened alert, as did the Turkish navy. The standoff continued into August, when two frigates from the opposing navies clashed, prompting the United States to call for de-escalation.
Hydrocarbons are not the only source of friction: Erdogan allowed asylum seekers to storm the Greek border in 2020 and challenged Greek sovereignty over islands in the eastern Aegean in 2021. Turkey has also threatened war if Greece tries to expand its territorial waters in the Aegean to 12 nautical miles, but Greece claims that does not violate international law.
Earthquakes create distrust
The latest turning point in tensions came after two devastating earthquakes in February devastated Turkish cities and killed tens of thousands of people.
Greece was the first foreign search and rescue team to arrive, and the two countries’ foreign ministers toured the wreckage together in a show of friendship. Turkish violations of Greek airspace in the Aegean Sea halted, easing continuing Greek frustration.
After elections in both countries in May and June, their newly appointed foreign ministers met in Ankara in September, paving the way for Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and President Erdogan to meet on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly two weeks later. Greece’s Deputy Foreign Minister Costas Frangogiannis and Turkey’s Deputy Foreign Minister met in October, as did the secretaries general of both ministries.
However, Turkey’s position remains unchanged, leaving some to question the usefulness of Erdogan’s visit.
“Yes, airspace violations may have decreased, at least for now, but provocations have not decreased,” conservative former Prime Minister Antonis Samaras said in a recent interview. “I’m talking about a fait accompli that Turkey established against us that still applies. Airspace violations decreased during my time… but that didn’t prevent Turkish escalation.” [tensions] later.”
Neither side is ignoring the substance of the issue during the visit.
“Everything else will be discussed,” Mr. Tsirigos said, referring to maritime sovereignty. “This discussion is not happening now. The rules for the future discussion will be discussed now.”
The ground rules agreement should revive the high-level dialogue between Greek and Turkish leaders launched in early 2010 to resolve their differences over their maritime border, an attempt to recapture the spirit of that time.
“The airspace violations have stopped. The inflammatory rhetoric has stopped. So the foundations are set for talks,” the senior diplomat said.
