HEBRON — When lawless police officers tried to topple Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in a bloody coup in July 2016, crowds of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and West Bank took to the streets in protest, then celebrated when the coup failed and showed solidarity with their beloved Islamic leader.
Mr. Erdogan’s outspoken support for the Palestinian cause, so memorable was his on-stage clash with then-Israeli President Shimon Peres over Israel’s attacks on Gaza at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in 2009, that it elevated him to hero status among devout Muslims around the world. Lovingly framed photos of Turkey’s first Islamist president hang everywhere, from supermarkets in East Jerusalem to private homes in Gaza City. Newborn babies are named after him. Mr. Erdogan’s popularity among Palestinians far surpassed his own approval rating at home.
Since the Gaza conflict erupted in the wake of Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel, the atmosphere has changed dramatically. The posters are gone and disappointment is widespread. “Before, we thought Erdogan was the best. People here loved him. Since the Ottoman period, Palestinians saw Turkey as their homeland and Erdogan as someone who could support Palestine around the world,” said Abdes Salam Abu Khalaf, a public relations consultant in the West Bank, recalling the Ottoman Empire’s more than 400 years of rule over Palestine. [May 2023 presidential] election [in Turkey]”Palestinians were glued to their mobile phones, waiting for the results and praying for his victory,” Khalaf told Al-Monitor. “Now we are seeing his true face.”
“He did good things for Turkey and for us Muslims,” said Jumana Nacha, a clothing store employee in Hebron. She pointed to Erdogan’s successful campaign to weaken Turkey’s anti-Islamist forces and to lifting bans on overt displays of piety, notably the ban on women wearing the Islamic headscarf in government and schools. “He finished Ataturk, the founder of modern Turkish secularism,” she said. “Today, for me I can say he’s finished,” Nacha told Al-Monitor.
“Before October 7, many Palestinians revered him, but after the Israeli attack he was silent for a long time,” agreed shopkeeper Islam Hirbawy.
A photo of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is displayed at a shawarma shop in East Jerusalem on August 7, 2019. (Amberin Zaman/Al-Monitor)
Indeed, early in the conflict, to the relief of Turkey’s Western partners, Erdogan refrained from inflammatory rants against Israel and offered to mediate between Israel and Hamas. “We call on all parties to act sensibly and avoid impulsive actions that inflame tensions,” Erdogan said. On October 10, he appealed to Hamas to release the Israeli hostages. As footage of horrific acts perpetrated by Hamas began to surface, Turkey reportedly asked visiting Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh to leave. Turkish officials denied this, but the allegation stood.
Even as Israeli attacks on Gaza and the casualties of women and children began to mount, Erdogan maintained a cautious stance. This was believed to be due to his efforts to repair ties with the West after a long period of tension that had led Turkey to become increasingly isolated amid a sharp economic downturn. This effort included restoring diplomatic relations with Israel at the ambassadorial level. Economic relations never deteriorated, but rather flourished. Just a few weeks before October 7, Erdogan met for the first time with his long-time thorn in Israel’s side, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York. Erdogan was to offer prayers at the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem and celebrate the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Turkish Republic. Netanyahu was to meet with Erdogan in Ankara. Meanwhile, some Hamas and Muslim Brotherhood operatives, long welcomed in Turkey, had been quietly ordered to leave the country.
But as the death toll in Gaza rose, it became harder to strike a balance. After a rocket blast at Gaza’s Al Ahli Hospital on October 17 killed many civilians, Turkey declared three days of mourning. Then on October 25, President Erdogan declared in the Turkish parliament that he had canceled a trip to Israel. He said the Jewish state was committing war crimes with the support of Western countries and that Hamas was not a terrorist organization but “a group of liberators defending their land.” On November 4, Ankara declared that it was withdrawing its ambassador from Tel Aviv after Israel recalled its envoy for consultations.
By that time, about 10,000 Palestinians had been killed in Israeli attacks on the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. “It was too little, too late,” Fawaz Rajab, a Palestinian engineer in Hebron, told Al-Monitor. “Turkey should have immediately cut off all ties with Israel in diplomatic, trade and everything. They should have declared war on Israel,” Rajab argued. “The Islamic army should act to protect our Muslim brothers. If I were Erdogan, I would mobilize the army against the state of Israel. This is what we expect from those in power,” Mustafa Shakir, a member of the global pan-Islamic Salafi movement Hizb ut-Tahrir, told Al-Monitor.
Khalaf said it was an indication of how much trust Palestinians have in Erdogan and that their expectations of him are unrealistically high.
It may also be that many were fooled by fake videos that began circulating on social media, which claimed Erdogan was vowing to retaliate militarily if Israel attacked Gaza. The situation was made worse when Turkish whistleblower Metin Cihan started sharing open-source data showing the size of trade ties between Turkey and the Jewish state, which amounted to $9.5 billion annually in 2022, mostly in favor of Turkey. Cihan revealed that some of the goods based on the open-source data were transported on ships owned by Erdogan’s second son, Bilal.
Palestinians are not the only ones who feel betrayed. At home, Erdogan’s devout supporters were appalled by footage of Turkish police beating and attacking anti-Israel protesters, some of whom were women wearing hijabs. Many expressed their anger by defecting to a small Islamist party, New Welfare, which has been a scathing critic of Erdogan’s Gaza policies and more than doubled its vote share at Erdogan’s expense ahead of local elections on March 31.
“Gaza is from Erdogan [New Welfare leader Fatih] “Erbakan’s approval rating is at its lowest since he came to power,” Ozer Senkal, founder of Ankara-based polling agency Metropol, told Al-Monitor. [in 2003]” added Senkar.
Welcome to SOCAR in Istanbul! pic.twitter.com/WbH9AikW0e
— Direnish Chadri (@direniscadiri) May 31, 2024
(Protesters gather outside the Istanbul offices of Azerbaijan’s state oil company SOCAR, May 31, 2024)
The message was also conveyed to his inner circle, particularly his wife Emine, a Gaza advocate, and his eldest daughter Esra, who inside sources say told him, “We lost the election because of Gaza.” The sources say it was the two who convinced the Turkish president to cancel a long-desired meeting with President Joe Biden at the White House that had been scheduled for May 9.
In April, amid mounting pressure, Turkey announced restrictions on sales to Israel on 54 items, including steel products, jet fuel, construction equipment, machinery, cement, granite, chemicals, pesticides and bricks.
Erdogan’s rhetoric grew increasingly tough as he re-hosted Hamas leaders Khaled Mashal and Ismail Haniyeh. On May 2, Turkey announced it would halt all trade with Israel until the Gaza war with Israel ends and aid to the Strip can flow uninterrupted. Israel relies heavily on Turkish construction materials. But trade officials who spoke to Reuters said they hoped Greece, Italy and other countries would be “ready to fill the void.” “Turkey is an important trading partner for Israel, but we are not completely dependent on Turkey, or even at all,” Shmuel Abramzon, chief economist at the Israeli Finance Ministry, told the news agency.
Today, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Turkey expects to apply to join South Africa’s genocide lawsuit against Israel at the International Court of Justice in June. Also today, a network of activists calling themselves the “Tent of Resistance” and vowing to “remain in the streets until all ties with Israel are severed” gathered outside the Istanbul headquarters of Azerbaijan’s state oil company, SOCAR, to protest against the continued supply of jet fuel “to Zionist aircraft while tens of thousands of people are being massacred in Gaza.”
Azerbaijan meets an estimated 40 percent of Israel’s oil needs through a pipeline that passes through Georgia and connects to export terminals on Turkey’s Mediterranean coast. Ankara has so far ignored calls to halt the pipeline’s supplies, but the move would have a much bigger impact on Israel than any previous Turkish action. Earlier this week, crowds gathered outside the Israeli and American consulates in Istanbul, chanting “Down with Israel.” Some people threw fireworks at the Israeli embassy.
Some Arab analysts say they are not surprised by Erdogan’s move. “He has changed positions many times in the past 20 years,” said Syrian liberal commentator Ayman Abdel Nour. An ardent supporter of the late Egyptian president Mohammed Morsi, who was ousted in a military coup, Erdogan later reconciled with his tormentor Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, who he kissed.
Similarly, he sought to repair ties with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad after arming and embracing Sunni rebels in their failed attempt to oust him, while telling Turkish voters he would repatriate millions of Syrian refugees to their homeland. “He is ready to use the Palestine card and the Brotherhood card for his own gain. The public now understands that his real policy is to stay in power,” Noor told Al-Monitor.
An inscription from the Ottoman Empire, which ruled Palestine in the 17th century, at the Tower of David in Jerusalem, May 24, 2024. (Amberin Zaman/Al-Monitor)
Hebron has been a bastion of support for Hamas, and until recently, for Erdogan. Young men in T-shirts emblazoned with the crimson Turkish flag bike past. Shops with names like “Istanbul Style” or simply “Turkey” line the main commercial thoroughfare. Not everyone is so harsh on Erdogan. Tarek Aziz Shuqair is engineering director for the Hebron municipality, which receives training and funding from Turkey for numerous projects, including the local fire brigade. “If you look at the Islamic leaders of Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and elsewhere, Erdogan remains one of the best leaders for the Palestinian people,” Shuqair told Al-Monitor. “He just did the bare minimum that we expected. But at least he did that. What did the others do?” he asked.
Prominent Palestinian commentator Khalil Asari agreed. “What President Erdogan and the entire Turkish nation are doing for Gaza and the Palestinians is far greater than the efforts of all Arab countries combined,” he said. “Despite Palestinian anger due to the discrepancy between their expectations and Turkey’s response, Turkey still enjoys a high status and President Erdogan’s popularity far exceeds that of some so-called Palestinian leaders,” he added.
Back at the clothing store, owner Hilbawy said he continued to import goods from Turkey even after the country’s blanket trade ban. “Ten days ago [on May 11] “I ordered 20 cases full of scarves from a supplier in Istanbul and they arrived at the port of Haifa,” Hirbawi said. “Erdogan is acting in his own interest, in the interest of his country,” Hirbawi concluded.
