In the early days of fantasy football, rookie receivers were an afterthought, almost a joke: You ignored them the first season, paid little attention to them the next, and maybe even considered them as breakout players in Year 3. That was the playbook, and just about everyone followed it.
There were occasional exceptions. Randy Moss had a great season and a breakout season in 1998. Anquan Boldin had a big year in 2003, rushing for 217 yards in the season opener. The mid-’90s also saw hits like Joey Galloway, Terry Glenn and Eddie Kennison, who burst onto the scene in a pre-internet era when fantasy football commissioners kept score by hand, fueled by caffeine and the morning paper.
The rookie rules changed in 2014. That was the year rookies crashed the party. Odell Beckham Jr. and Mike Evans both finished in the top 10 fantasy wide receivers. Kelvin Benjamin and Jordan Matthews were reliable WR2s. And some under-the-radar rookies quickly turned into stars, including Davante Adams, Brandin Cooks, Allen Robinson and Jarvis Landry. Sammy Watkins also had his moment.
Let’s take a look at the rookie classes since then to see what we’ve learned and what trends are emerging.
Class of 2015
After the explosive growth of 2014, the market tried to revise the rules for rookie WRs, but the adjustment year was a failure. Amari Cooper finished as the 25th best WR (a bit disappointing considering he was drafted 4th overall), and Tyler Lockett (WR35) and Stefon Diggs (WR46) were respectable, especially for players selected outside of the first round of the NFL Draft.
Four other wide receivers were drafted in the first round that year, but none of them were ranked in the top 60 at their positions and only contributed a small amount: DeVante Parker, Nelson Agholor and Phillip Dorsett at least got on the field, while Kevin White and Breshad Perriman had to wait until 2016 to play professionally.
There weren’t many stealth hits either. Jamison Crowder (105th pick) ended up being a good NFL player.
Class of 2016
This was another year of disappointing first-round wide receivers. Corey Coleman (15th overall) retired after three seasons, Will Fuller (21st) was injured frequently during his six-year career, and Josh Doctson and Laquon Treadwell were flops. But this class produced two superstars outside of the first round: Michael Thomas (47th overall, WR9 as a rookie) and Tyreek Hill (165th overall, WR11 as a rookie). Sterling Shepard was a good WR4 as a rookie. Tyler Boyd was a good player eventually, but didn’t really shine until his third year.
Class of 2017
Corey Davis (5th overall) never turned into a star, Mike Williams (7th) needed an adjustment year, and John Ross (9th) won the combine but flopped as a pro. But this draft class had plenty of hits outside of the first round, some of which immediately made an impact (JuJu Smith-Schuster was WR15, Cooper Kupp was WR27). Kenny Golladay and Chris Godwin showed promise as rookies and then delivered in their sophomore and junior years.
Class of 2018
The NFL was shy about receivers in the draft, with DJ Moore being the first pick at 24th overall. Calvin Ridley was picked two spots later, the last of the first round. Ridley was a solid rookie (WR18) and Moore (WR39) is at least worthy of a roster spot. Good things should eventually happen for the two second-round picks in Christian Kirk and Courtland Sutton.
Class of 2019
Ah, the famous 2019 draft, the year when a non-first-round pick shocked the world and two first-round picks disappointed.
Marquise Brown has been a decent, if inconsistent, pro. He was the first WR selected 25th overall. Hollywood Brown was only the 45th overall WR as a rookie. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes might bring out the best in him this year.
The Patriots drafted N’Keal Harry with the 32nd pick, which was a departure from the team’s strategy. Terry Glenn (1996) was the last first-round receiver drafted by New England. Harry never figured out the pro game.
But the later rounds were packed with superstars waiting to be selected, many of whom were picked in the second and third rounds: AJ Brown (WR9, albeit at a modest volume), Terry McLaurin (WR24), Deebo Samuel (WR26), and DK Metcalf (WR30) all saw immediate impact, while Dionta Johnson (WR40) was a late-season prospect. Darius Slayton was a surprise fifth-round pick and was a solid, if unspectacular, player, finishing as a WR33 as a rookie.
Class of 2020
After such a hit 2019, you’d expect the NFL to be aggressive at the receiver position in the draft. And that’s exactly what happened, with six wide receivers taken in the first round. The results were mixed, with CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson and Brandon Aiyuk all soaring, while Jalen Liagore and Jerry Jeudy underwhelmed. Henry Ruggs had a hit-and-miss two years before his life took a tragic turn.
There were some big hits outside of the first round as well, including Chase Claypool (who unfortunately emerged like a comet), Tee Higgins, Gabe Davis, Darnell Mooney and Michael Pittman Jr. Seven rookie wide receivers reached 100 points this year, led by Jefferson (WR6), Claypool (WR14), Lamb (WR17), Higgins (WR28) and Aiyuk (WR33).
2021 students
This is the class that is most similar to the 2024 receiver class. Three wide receivers were picked in the top 10 (Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, and DeVonta Smith). They all have had big pro careers, but they also have had injuries and slumps at times. Chase was WR3 as a freshman, Waddle was WR21, and Smith was WR30. The other two wide receivers were picked in the first round but fell flat: Kadarius Toney, Rashaud Bateman. The future is still unwritten.
Later rounds unearthed two eventual stars: Amon-Ra Saint Brown (112th) and Nico Collins (89th). The Sun God was the WR23 as a rookie. Collins needed time to develop, but his breakout year in 2023 was worth the wait.
2022 students
By this time, the NFL had fully pivoted to a receiver-heavy draft, with four wide receivers in the top 12 and six in the first round. Ohio State stars Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson had their best two years, but it’s questionable how much they were hurt by inconsistent quarterback play. Drake London has the same complaint.
Jameson Williams is still waiting for a healthy, clean season, which likely will come in 2024. Treylon Burks is likely to be a first-round bust.
Christian Watson and Jahan Dotson were better as rookies, but there are also rumors of several wide receivers being selected outside of the first round.
Wilson (WR21) finished just ahead of Olave (WR23) his freshman year, and they’ll pay Wilson a lot every summer for the next five years. Watson was WR25, Pickens was WR30, London was WR38, and Dotson was WR41. It was a solid year for a rookie.
2023 class
Four wide receivers were selected in the first round, but clubs took their time with their selections: Jackson Smith-Njiba, Quentin Johnston, Zae Flowers and Jordan Addison were selected with picks 20 through 23. Four more wide receivers were selected in the second round, with Jaeden Reed and Marvin Mims being the standouts, and two big names were on the way: Tank Dell in the third round and Puka Nacua in the fifth.
Nacua finished as WR5 and was a waiver wire god this season. Reed (WR18), Addison (WR19), Rice (WR27) and Flowers (WR30) all proved their place on the roster. Dell was WR37 despite missing six games. Houston was a really fun team last year.
On the negative side, JSN is a disappointing rookie (WR51) and there are already questions about whether Johnston (WR78) is a dud.
What does that even mean?
If we look at rookie receiver performance from 2014 to 2023, we find that there have been 44 years in which receivers scored 100 or more points. Here’s the breakdown by round:
Round 1: 20 players
Round 2: 13 players
Round 3: 5 players (John Brown was eliminated by 1 point)
Round 4: 3 people
Round 5: 3 people
You can’t say for sure that there isn’t a player like Nacua or St. Brown lurking in 2024, but that’s not the way you should bet.
If we loosely define a rookie “hit” as 100 points or more and a rookie “miss” as less than 100 points, then the rookie hit percentages per round are as follows:
Round 1: Approximately 50%
Round 2: Approximately 25%
Round 3: Approximately 15%
After Round 3: Buying lottery tickets
Despite the highest hit rate coming from the first round, there is an interesting variance in the top 10 rookie seasons in this study.
Round 1: 4 people
Round 2: 4 people
Round 5: Hill and Nacua
But that’s probably an arbitrary game of endpoints: WRs 11 through 16 are all first-round picks.
Fast forward to the present: Here is my initial look at the 2024 rookie class heading into fantasy 2024 using my traffic light rating system.
Marvin Harrison Jr. — Green light (but his ADP has helium written all over it).
Malik Neighbors — Yellow Light (Can Brian Daboll coach Daniel Jones again?)
Rome Odunze — Yellow light (great technique, but too much competition for the ball)
Brian Thomas Jr. — Yellow light (may turn green this summer)
Xavier Worthy — Yellow Light (but likely won’t be needed for at least a year due to Hollywood Brown still in the mix)
Ricky Pearsall — Red Light (overcrowded venue, probably a year away)
Xavier Leggett — Red Light (But Dave Canales Could Be a Miracle Worker)
Keon Coleman — Yellow light (not a separator, but has contested catch skills and needs targets)
Ladd McConkey — Yellow Light (could lead team in targets)
Jalyn Polk — Red light (QB play uncertain, teammate Javon Baker may be more interesting)
Who else did I not mention? Try to keep an open mind all summer long. Puka Nacua says that’s important.
