Dr. Claudia Scheinbaum’s historic victory by 32 points over opposition coalition candidate Xochitl Gálvez means that Mexico, the world’s largest Spanish-speaking country, will be led by a leftist leader for only the second time since democratization in 2000. Not only will she be Mexico’s first female president, but she will also be the first person of Jewish origin to hold the position.
This year’s Mexican presidential election is all but decided. The Morena party was so sure of her victory that the most visible posters, plastered on walls and fences across the country, read “Claudia is President.” But her landslide victory doesn’t prove she’s as popular as the party is. Credit for that goes to Dr. Sheinbaum’s mentor, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO). Equally prominent was another poster that read “Claudia is Green.” Here’s her agenda:
Sheinbaum’s right-wing critics have dismissed her as AMLO’s “princess” and “spoiled daughter.” Such labels are cruel and misogynistic. The president-elect has a long list of accolades, an impressive academic record, and an admirable record for her work as mayor of Mexico City.
A quarter century ago, Brazil elected philosopher-king Fernando Henrique Cardoso as president. A renowned sociologist famous for his “dependency theory,” Cardoso combined theoretical and empirical research with political practice. He maintained his positivist training and belief in the agenda of social justice, and he was a huge success.
Like Cardoso, Scheinbaum should also be considered a “philosopher queen.” With a PhD in energy engineering, she was part of the UN panel of climate scientists that won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007. She conducts scientific research and has written books and papers on energy efficiency, sustainability and the environment.
While Cardoso became president by accident, Sheinbaum was raised by President AMLO. She served as mayor of the borough of Tlalpan from 2015 to 2017, before taking over as Mexico City’s head of government in 2018. Her work as mayor was very impressive. Her efforts have visibly improved the air quality in Mexico City, once considered the most polluted city in the world.
Mexicans remember her program, “Ciudad Solar” (City of the Sun). Mexico City is home to the world’s largest solar power plant, with solar panels installed on the roofs of its busiest market, the Central de Abastos.
Sheinbaum’s cable cars, or “cablebuses,” reduced the use of subways and metrobuses.
She has benefited from President AMLO’s development projects across the country, including the Tren Maya and Oaxaca’s ocean railway. AMLO’s popularity and many of his programs have benefited those most in need. His administration has doubled the minimum wage, dismantled ghost unions, and expanded coverage from 27% to 39% through social security transfer programs. The wages of the poorest 10% of the working population have increased by 100% over the past six years. AMLO’s social programs have been as transformative as Lula’s “Bolsa Família,” which is now a global model for poverty reduction.
Scheinbaum’s 100-point campaign program was a strategic one: She spoke primarily about social programs, raising the annual minimum wage, universal health care and affordable housing.
“La Doctora” Scheinbaum’s campaign was dignified. In contrast, the campaign of the opposition coalition made up of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), the National Action Party (PAN) and the Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) was entirely negative, bordering on vulgarity and personal attacks. Scheinbaum’s Jewish ancestry was an obvious target.
Gálvez not only resorted to personal attacks, but also crossed the boundaries of political decency with cheesy and somewhat vulgar slogans calling her critics “huevones” (lazy people), “pendejos” (fools), and people over 60 who don’t have wealth “gueys” (idiots). Sheinbaum successfully countered the opposition’s invective by specifically emphasizing her Mexican identity and her sense of belonging to the Mexican nation.
Scheinbaum is not a charismatic or populist leader like her predecessors. She has indicated on multiple occasions that she has her own priorities. She will be a more technocratic than populist president. She will definitely not be ideological. It remains to be seen how she will engage with other world leaders on global issues and build solidarity with other left-leaning leaders in Latin America.
It will be difficult for the president-elect to continue AMPO’s controversial efforts to weaken the judiciary and the electoral commission when she takes office on October 1. Even as mayor, she differed from AMLO’s approach on security, the energy transition, and responding to the COVID-19 pandemic.
One of the most difficult challenges for the new president will be to emerge from AMLO’s shadow. There are many unfinished projects and promises made by President AMLO. Not all of them will be easy to implement. Dr. Sheinbaum is aware of what happened with President Miguel de la Madrid.
In the 1980s, President Lopez Portillo confiscated the entire banking industry amid a currency devaluation and debt crisis just three months before leaving office. His successor, Miguel de la Madrid, struggled to deal with the fallout and repay huge debts to bank owners during his term. Some of AMLO’s promised projects and unfinished business would be nearly impossible to implement without incurring huge debts.
It remains to be seen how Sheinbaum will address the rising violence and migration issues. A major problem facing Mexico is its inadequate criminal investigation system, with 98 percent of crimes going unpunished. Sheinbaum has pledged to create a new National Crime Investigation Program to address this issue.
She will face big challenges in implementing environmental policies: During a month-long road trip across the country, she saw vast tracts of farmland burning, and as she flew over the world-famous resort of Cancun, smoke billowed from everywhere and nearly engulfed the airport.
The economy is not doing great either. Economists expect the budget deficit to be 4.9% of GDP this year, the highest since 1988. How much will the new president be able to borrow to pay off the growing debt? The next president will have to raise taxes and cut spending on populist programs to pay down the government debt.
Scheinbaum is unlikely to push through AMLO’s controversial and highly divisive moves to control the judiciary and electoral institutions. Legal reform will proceed slowly at best. We cannot afford to be at odds with the Supreme Court. AMLO wants judges elected, which poses serious threats to judicial independence, violates international legal standards, and undermines democracy.
President AMLO has made intellectuals his punching bag, but he has chosen one to succeed him. Dr. Sheinbaum may be carving out his own path and bringing fresh ideas and a coherent perspective to the administration.
Ultimately, will her intellectual work shape the administration’s thinking, or will she end up like Mexico’s Angela Merkel, who was trained as a physicist and tried to shift the political debate to one about policy rather than politics?
