Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had a clear goal in the local elections held over the Easter weekend. He had hoped his conservative, Islamic-oriented Justice and Development Party (AKP) would retake the capital, which it lost to opposition politicians in 2019.
But things did not go according to plan. In fact, the AKP failed to regain majorities in Turkey’s major cities and lost support in smaller provincial capitals, mainly to the main opposition, the center-left Republican People’s Party (CHP).
According to preliminary figures, the CHP received 37.76% of the national vote, with almost all votes counted.
The CHP prevailed in 21 smaller cities and 14 larger ones, including Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, Bursa, Adana and Antalya.
The local elections were seen as a kind of opinion poll on Erdogan’s current government. Turkey’s leader, accustomed to winning, was clearly aware of the bad mood Turkish voters were in. The AKP managed 35.48% of the national vote. For the first time in its history, it was only the second most popular party in the country.
Türkiye’s opposition makes big gains in local elections
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Türkiye’s economic problems are the cause of AKP’s defeat
Late Sunday evening, the 70-year-old Erdogan spoke to supporters in an uncharacteristically quiet audience, a departure from his usual energetic self. He hailed Turkey’s elections as a good sign for Turkish democracy and did not threaten the opposition.
“Unfortunately, we did not get the results we wanted,” Erdogan told an audience at the AKP headquarters in Ankara. “Of course, we respect the decision of the people.”
He added that the defeat would be critically assessed and noted that it would not be the end of the AKP but a “turning point”.
Turkey has suffered in recent years as a result of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s economic policies, including his insistence on low interest rates. Despite tax increases and other tightening measures, the government has been unable to contain high inflation and the resulting loss of purchasing power for consumers. In other words, economic conditions played a major role in election campaigns.
“It was precisely the tense economic situation that determined the AKP’s poor performance,” said Salim Cevik, a Turkey expert at the Berlin-based German Institute for International Security Affairs (SWP).
During the campaign for parliamentary and presidential elections a year ago, Erdogan handed out huge amounts of sweeteners, including to pensioners and low-income earners.
“This time, he couldn’t afford it because the treasury was empty,” Čevik told DW, “which led to the defeat.”
President Erdogan appeared calm as he spoke to his supporters after the vote.Photo: Emin Sansart/Anadolu/Picture Alliance
Attention on Istanbul
To retake Istanbul from the opposition, the Turkish president has personally led the campaign, running from event to event over the past few months and dispatching 17 of his ministers to do the same around the country, acting as if they were on the ballot when they were not.
Erdogan’s biggest concern was Istanbul, a city of 16 million people. It is home to 20 percent of the county’s total workforce and handles more than half of the country’s imports and exports. The cities of Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, Adana, Antalya and Mugla together account for nearly half of Turkey’s economic output.
Istanbul is also a meaningful symbol for Türkiye’s leaders. He was mayor from his 1994 to his 1998 years, and he himself said at the time that whoever controls Istanbul controls the whole country.
You can’t stop the CHP
Nevertheless, despite mobilizing the entire state apparatus, the current government has not succeeded in stopping the opposition. Preliminary statistics show that the CHP has a significant lead in the three most important cities (Ankara, Istanbul and Izmir): in Izmir it is leading by 10%, in Istanbul by 11% and in Ankara by almost 28%.
In Istanbul, the city’s popular mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, a CHP member, will remain in his position.
İmamoğlu told his supporters that the election “ends the erosion of democracy in Turkey and signals the restoration of democracy. Istanbul has won.”
Officials say the mayor’s victory increases the chances that Mr. Imamoglu will position himself as Mr. Erdogan’s main challenger in the next presidential election in four years.
“This is a victory for Imamoglu,” said Emre Erdogan, a political science professor at Istanbul’s Bilgi University. Turkey is politically divided and Imamoglu has managed to appeal to both voters from the ultranationalist IYI party and those from the pro-Kurdish DEM party, formerly the HDP.
“Currently, both he and Ankara Mayor Mansur Yabas could be considered as potential presidential candidates,” Erdogan said.
Opposition CHP supporters celebrated late into the night. Photo: Chris McGrath/Getty Images
It’s not the end of AKP
But the scholar believes this is not the AKP’s political objective: the ruling party still has many seats in local councils and Erdogan needs to consolidate his base before the next elections in 2028.
But analysts agree that Imamoglu does pose a danger. Like the current president, the 52-year-old mayor is originally from the conservative Black Sea region. He also attends Quran classes and, like Erdogan, places great importance on national megaprojects. He can mobilize voters and is also considered charismatic, sincere and ambitious.
This is why he is an option for many urban Islamic conservatives and Turkish nationalists. Nor is he a deliberately polarizing figure, so he would be an acceptable candidate for many urban Turkish Kurds.
According to SWP’s Čebik, another winner has emerged after these local elections, and that is the New Welfare Party, headed by Fatih Erbakan, the son of Turkey’s political Islam founder Necmettin Erbakan. That’s what it means.
His father is considered one of Turkey’s most influential politicians of the 20th century. Anti-secular and anti-Western, he founded the Milli Golsu (or “National Vision”) movement in 1969 with the goal of turning Turkey into an Islamic state and moving Turkey away from Europe to other Islamic countries.
The movement, although not illegal, is “under surveillance” by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, because it espouses Islamist views.
In this election, Fatih Erbakan’s conservative Islamist New Welfare Party did not ally with Erdogan but fielded its own candidates, winning mayoral seats in two cities and most likely winning AKP votes.
“As soon as an alternative party emerges to the AKP in the realm of conservative nationalism, Erdogan’s room for maneuver will narrow,” Čevik explained.
It is highly likely that President Erdoğan will try to link the New Welfare Party and the AKP more closely in the future. But for that to happen, the Turkish president will have to make a number of concessions.
This story was originally published in German.
