ISTANBUL (AP) – A significant opposition victory in Turkey’s local elections has left long-serving President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his ruling party looking ahead to the next election with the populist leader’s support. There is a growing possibility that the United States will withdraw from some of its polarizing policies. About voting in 4 years.
There is no doubt that Sunday’s local polls were a blow to both President Erdogan and his Islamic-oriented Justice and Development Party (AKP), which won last year’s presidential and parliamentary elections.
In the vote, the main opposition centre-left Republican People’s Party (CHP) won Istanbul and the capital Ankara by wide margins, but also won in conservative provinces and municipalities such as Adiyaman and Kilis provinces in the south. Won the vote in 2019.
What happened now?
Some analysts said on Monday that the results were a warning, and that Erdogan’s government is seeking “normalization” that could include easing relations with the United States and NATO allies such as neighboring Greece and adopting more hostile policies at home. He said he expected to pursue this path.
Mr Erdogan, who has ruled Turkey for more than two decades as prime minister since 2003 and president since 2014, spoke from the balcony of the presidential palace late Sunday, acknowledging the electoral setback and saying his party had suffered a “loss of elevation”. said. ” All over Türkiye.
He said the people had sent a “message” that the AKP would “analyse” by engaging in “courageous” self-criticism.
Seda Demiralp, a political science professor at Issik University in Istanbul, said that when President Recep Tayyip Erdogan overturned expectations of an opposition victory in last May’s elections after a devastating earthquake that killed more than 53,000 people in the south of the country, He said he sees this pattern.
Despite last year’s discouraging performance, CHP won the popular vote in many major cities.
“This was a warning,” Demiralp said. “I expect President Erdoğan to continue normalizing…otherwise (AKP) will continue to lose even more.”
What about Islam and family values?
Others who have been watching Turkey closely do not think Erdogan will make any radical changes or major changes to his conservative Islamist policies. But you may need to tone it down.
Wolfango Piccoli, co-president of New York-based consulting firm Teneo, said President Erdoğan would emphasize “family values” and put the brakes on plans to amend the constitution to protect things like women’s right to wear Islamic clothing. It suggests that there is a possibility of scarf — but many see this as an attack on the rights of the LGBTQ+ community.
Still, “President Erdogan will not move towards greater political accommodation because he dislikes power sharing, and he is not going to use this painful defeat to weaken his polarizing rhetoric,” Piccoli said.
In Sunday’s election, the opposition CHP won 35 of Turkey’s 81 provinces, including the five most populous cities, while President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s AKP won 24 provinces.
Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, chairman of the board of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara, said it was an unprecedented result for Erdoğan.
Voter turnout was about 78%, compared with 87% in last year’s election, according to state-run Anadolu Agency. The results suggested that it was mainly AKP supporters who did not vote.
“We’ve never seen him lose like this,” he said. “The CHP is now leading the AKP in the polls for the first time…This is a landslide because it is the first time for the CHP that it received more votes than the AKP.”
“Turkey is ready for change,” Unluhisarsikli said.
Where is the economy headed?
The election was held against the backdrop of an ongoing cost of living crisis, with voters facing annual inflation that rose to 67% in February. Meanwhile, President Erdogan has allowed borrowing costs to rise by up to 50% to counter soaring prices.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long supported an unusual policy of lowering interest rates to combat inflation, and has fired central bank governors who resisted his efforts to cut interest rates. This goes against traditional economic thinking, and many blame President Erdoğan’s unusual methods for Turkey’s economic turmoil.
Commentators said that while the economic crisis had little impact on Erdogan’s popularity in national opinion polls last year, AKP voters were more likely to express dissatisfaction with the lack of Erdogan’s name on the ballot. said.
“I think Turkish voters have sent a clear message to President Erdogan that enough is enough,” said Berg Esen, an associate professor of political science at Sabanci University in Istanbul.
“If President Erdoğan does not get his act together and change the ruling party, the decline in AKP vote share that we have experienced will continue,” Esen added.
How has the political landscape changed?
Istanbul, where Erdoğan was born and raised and where he began his political career, was seen as a key electoral battleground, with opposition groups maintaining control of the city, but the pro-Kurdish Equality Democratic Party won in the southeast. Ta. 10 states despite years of repression in which Kurdish mayors have been removed and replaced with government appointees and thousands of political activists have been arrested.
The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), which is allied with President Erdoğan, won in eight parties spread across the country. The New Welfare Party (YRP), which primarily competed with the AKP for the support of conservative voters, captured two provinces.
It won 6.2% of the national vote, making it the third-largest party. The IYI Party and the Grand Solidarity Party won the remaining two states.
Those who expected the opposition to perform poorly in Sunday’s election were stunned.
The change in CHP leadership after last year’s elections (from 75-year-old Kemal Kilikdaroglu to 49-year-old Ozgur Ozer) has revitalized the party and ensured victory for the incumbent CHP mayor and other candidates. It seemed like a path had been opened for containment.
Analysts contrasted strong candidates fielded by opposition parties, such as Istanbul’s Ekrem İmamoğlu and Ankara’s Mansur Yabas, with the AKP candidate, who was largely overshadowed by Erdogan during the campaign.
Imamoglu won by more than 11 points, while Yabas secured a nearly 29-point lead over their AKP rivals.
The result could position Imammoğlu as a potential challenger to the 2028 presidential election, despite an unresolved lawsuit that could result in his being forced out of politics.
“Leadership has become more important than political party or ideology,” Demiralp said. “Especially in countries with weak institutions like Turkey, people connect more with their leaders than with political parties or other institutions.”
What is the talk on the street?
Emotions were mixed on the streets of Istanbul on Monday, with many praising the opposition’s victory but others expressing concern amid the economic crisis and daily struggles.
“It was a good day to wake up in the morning,” opposition supporter Ayse Poplata said, adding that the result “will be beneficial for our country.”
Hikabi Pekdemir, 54, said he voted against President Erdogan’s AKP because his rent has increased sixfold in the past two years.
“I live alone and have two children,” he said. “How can I make ends meet?”
Fatma Khanedar, 40, said she was “devastated and very upset” by the result, saying voters supported President Erdogan’s leadership through Turkey’s recovery from the coronavirus pandemic and rebuilding efforts after last year’s earthquake. He said he had shown “extreme ungratefulness” towards the leaders of the United States.
“Thankfully our president is still at the helm,” said Husamettin Ezer, 52, another AKP supporter.
