Analysis: Despite unstable diplomatic relations since 2010, trade between Israel and Turkey is thriving. New restrictions by the Turkish government could change the situation.
Turkey last week introduced trade restrictions with Israel, announcing a list of 54 items whose exports will be suspended until Israel declares a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, according to the Trade Ministry.
After years of tension, Turkey and Israel restored diplomatic relations with the return of the ambassador in 2022.
However, relations deteriorated rapidly when the war in Gaza began. Turkey’s official reason for introducing trade measures is Israel’s rejection of a request to participate in a humanitarian airlift to the Gaza Strip.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has loudly condemned Israel’s war in Gaza and called for an immediate ceasefire, but faces a backlash at home for continuing trade ties and not matching rhetoric with action. are doing.
The announcement comes after months of public outrage over what some in Turkey see as the government’s ambiguous position on the conflict, and actions such as the resignation of individual ambassadors as merely symbolic. This was done after a backlash.
In Turkey’s local elections held last month, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) was defeated by its former Islamist ally, the New Welfare Party, which has taken a tougher stance on the Gaza war. lost part of its support base.
Other factors were at play, primarily Turkey’s economic woes and rampant inflation, which contributed to the AK Party’s worst-ever national election defeat.
The list of 54 products that Turkey announced it would stop exporting to Israel includes cement, steel and iron, which account for the bulk of sales. According to the Israel Construction Association, Israel imports about 70% of its steel construction materials and one-third of its cement from Turkey.
Shea Pausner, the association’s vice president, recently told the Times of Israel that as a result of the regulations, the industry will have to look for alternative, more expensive suppliers, and construction will continue to grow at a time when the industry is already experiencing a labor shortage. He said costs would rise further. After Israel expelled workers from Gaza at the start of the war.
Bilateral trade has flourished in recent years, despite harsh public statements by the leaders of both countries. [TNA/Lucie Wimetz]
Following the announcement, Israel accused Turkey of unilaterally violating the trade agreement, and Foreign Minister Israel Katz vowed to take “appropriate measures” against Turkey.
“I have directed the United States to call on pro-Israel countries and organizations in the United States to reduce investment in Turkey and block imports of products from Turkey,” Katz said in a statement.
So far, Israel has not responded to these threats.
Turkey is a major exporter to Israel. Exports totaled more than $5.4 billion last year, making the Jewish state the country’s 13th largest destination, according to data from the Turkish Trade Ministry.
According to Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics, Israel is the fifth largest supplier and also the tenth largest export market.
Trade between Israel and Turkey has been unstable since 2010, when the Israeli navy attacked the Mavi Marmara, part of a convoy trying to break the blockade of Gaza with aid. It has flourished over the past 10 years.
Still, exports from Turkey began to decline last year, down from $7.03 billion in 2022.
“No one has been more vocal in criticizing Israel than President Erdogan,” Matthew Briza, former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, told The New Arab newspaper.
“But throughout, especially in the first few months after October 7, you will see in the media statements by President Erdoğan and others that Turkey is ready to participate in mediation,” he said. added. “So he didn’t completely burn all his bridges with Israel.”
Critics also point out that the trade restrictions do not imply a complete ban, and it remains to be seen how companies will try to circumvent the restrictions.
Turkey’s promotion of crude oil exports from Azerbaijan to Israel through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline continues, with recent research reports highlighting the critical intertwining of civilian and military fuel supply chains, for example. ing.
“Azerbaijan has no closer friend or ally than Turkey. Therefore, I think Turkey does not want to hurt Azerbaijan,” Briza said.
Azerbaijan and Israel have close military and economic ties. “If Turkey really wanted to oppress Israel, it would do so.”
Ylenia Gostli is a reporter currently based in Istanbul, Türkiye. She has covered politics, social change, and conflict in the Middle East and Europe. Her research on refugees, immigration, and human trafficking has received awards and grants.
Follow her on Twitter: @yleniagostoli
