When the Republican National Convention convenes in Milwaukee in mid-July, it will deliver the party’s message and its candidates to one of the most hotly contested battleground states, where thousands of voters will decide the outcome of the presidential election.
In recent years, Republicans have held their conventions in both purple and solidly Republican states. The 2020 Republican National Convention was scheduled to be held in North Carolina, a state that former President Donald Trump ultimately won by just over 1 percentage point. In 2016, it was held in Ohio, where Trump won by a much larger margin of 8 points that year.
Wisconsin is in the first purple category. There are many factors that make Wisconsin neither completely red nor completely blue. But one thing is certain: Republicans know that Wisconsin is a key state in 2024, and holding their convention here puts the party directly in the eyes of critical voters.
If you’re interested in learning more about Wisconsin politics ahead of the Republican National Convention, here’s a primer on the state’s political geography, presidential voting history and partisan control of state government.
Is Wisconsin a Republican or Democratic state?
The best way to describe Wisconsin is that it’s a purple state. National political commentators also call Wisconsin a battleground state or swing state because it’s one of the truly competitive states that will determine the winner of the presidential election.
Other battleground states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.
Who did Wisconsinites vote for in the last presidential election?
A common refrain from both parties is that if a presidential candidate wins Wisconsin, he or she wins it all. With a few exceptions, this is generally true.
In 2020, Wisconsin voted for President Joe Biden and won the presidential election, with Biden receiving 49.6% of the vote to President Trump’s 48.9%, a difference of less than 21,000 votes.
In 2016, Wisconsin voted for Trump and chose the candidate who won the election: Trump received 47.2% of the vote to Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton’s 46.5%, a margin of about 23,000 votes.
Let’s go back a little further in history: In both 2008 and 2012, Wisconsin voted for Democrat Barack Obama for President.
The last time Wisconsin did not vote for a winning candidate was in 2004, when the state voted for Democratic candidate John Kerry by less than one percentage point. The same happened in 2000, when Wisconsin voted for Democratic candidate Al Gore by a narrow margin.
Is Milwaukee a Democratic or Republican city?
Milwaukee, Wisconsin’s most populous city, is hosting the Republican National Convention, and the city is undoubtedly Democratic.
Biden won about 70% of the vote in Milwaukee County in 2020. Clinton won about 66% in 2016.
Still, there are signs that Milwaukee’s black voters are losing enthusiasm for a rematch in 2020. Since 2004, turnout among Milwaukee’s black voters has been significantly lower than white voter turnout in presidential elections, except in 2012.
Milwaukee has Democratic Mayor Cavalier Johnson and County Executive David Crowley who both support hosting the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, citing the expected economic benefits and international attention it would bring to the city.
Read more: Major policy win puts Cavalier Johnson and David Crowley in control of politics
Which areas of Wisconsin vote Republican and which areas vote Democrat?
Looking at a map of Wisconsin’s election results, it’s easy to see that the state’s larger cities are centers of Democratic voting, while rural areas tend to vote Republican.
However, there have been some notable changes in recent voting trends.
The WOW counties that surround Milwaukee are often seen as a shorthand for understanding the views of suburban voters. Once Republican strongholds, these counties have been moving in a more Democratic direction.
Read more: Gilbert: 30 years of voting history shows changes in Wisconsin suburban voting
Dane County, home to Madison, is also experiencing a rapid population increase, and an influx of voters into an already heavily Democratic area could make it harder for Republicans to match the strong voter turnout in other parts of the state.
Read more: NBC looks to fast-growing Dane County as 2024 presidential election prediction
Meanwhile, rural Wisconsin has become increasingly Republican: Combined, Wisconsin towns have won Trump by 25 points in both of his presidential elections, compared with a 12-point margin for Republicans in 2012, according to a Journal Sentinel analysis.
Does Wisconsin have a Democratic or Republican governor?
Wisconsin has a Democratic governor, Tony Evers, who was first elected in 2018 and is up for reelection in 2022. He defeated Republican candidate Tim Michels by about 51% to 48% in the 2022 election. Evers, a former state schools chancellor, has focused on issues such as education, child care and broadband access.
Before Governor Evers, Republican Governor Scott Walker served as governor for eight years and implemented major reforms in Wisconsin, including signing Measure 10, which limited collective bargaining rights for most public employees, and expanding private school vouchers. Governor Walker was a delegate to the Republican National Convention and spoke at Trump’s recent rally in Racine.
More: We know Trump will be the Republican National Convention nominee, but here’s why the convention still matters
Is the Wisconsin Legislature Republican or Democrat?
This is another area where Wisconsin is divided. The governor is a Democrat, but the state Legislature has been in Republican power for more than a decade. In 2023, Republicans hold 64 of the 99 state Assembly seats and 21 of the 33 senate seats.
But that could all change in 2024, when lawmakers are running in new districts that replace maps that are considered some of the most unfair in the country. If Democrats gain a majority, it will likely come first in the House, since not all Senate seats are up for election this year.
Read more: Breaking moment for Wisconsin Democrats: New maps put Assembly majority within reach
If Democrats take control of the state Legislature, they will likely try to pass policies that Republicans have rejected, such as legalizing marijuana and raising the state minimum wage.
Who represents Wisconsin in Congress?
In the U.S. Senate, Wisconsin is represented by Republican Ron Johnson and Democrat Tammy Baldwin, who is running for reelection this year against Republican Eric Hovde in a nationally watched race.
Wisconsin is one of the few states with one senator from each party, and Johnson and Baldwin have the most different voting records of any senator from the same state in the past 20 years.
More: The Senate’s strangest ‘odd couple’: Tammy Baldwin and Ron Johnson, Wisconsin’s historically unusual pairing
There are two Democrats who represent Wisconsin in the U.S. House of Representatives: Rep. Mark Pocan of the Madison area and Rep. Gwen Moore of Milwaukee.
The two most competitive districts are currently represented by Republicans: the Western 3rd District, represented by Rep. Derrick Van Alden, and the Southeast 1st District, represented by Rep. Brian Steil.
The other Republicans are Rep. Tom Tiffany of the 7th District in the north, Rep. Glenn Grothman of the 6th District in the center, and Rep. Scott Fitzgerald of the 5th District in west Milwaukee. Several Republicans are running in the primary to replace Rep. Mike Gallagher of the 8th District in the northeast.
Read more: Wisconsin has a new legislative map, but not a new congressional map. Here’s why.
