Image credit: canonim via wikimedia.org
Turkey, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s (OECD) fastest-growing energy market and a city of 85 million people, is expected to reach its net-zero target by 2053.
This is what the Turkish President promised at the UN General Assembly.
Shortly after Turkey declared itself a party to the Paris Agreement in September 2021, the Istanbul Policy Center (IPC), a global research institute, released its first report on the country’s climate change efforts to date.
The IPC has been tracking Turkey’s decarbonization efforts since joining the Paris Agreement and concluded that the country’s net-zero target, while imperfect, is achievable. Indeed, Turkey’s strong wind and solar power capacity allows it to not only meet its own energy needs but also lead Europe’s decarbonization efforts.
Policy and the potential of renewable energy
Following the IPC report, Turkey was the focus of similar studies by the World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Reports, the United Nations Development Programme and the SHURA Centre for Energy Transitions, which came up with similar results using their own methodologies.
Turkey plans to reduce its emissions by 32 percent between 2018 and 2030, and then commit to a cut of more than 70 percent by 2050, said Umit Sahin, lead editor of the IPC report, senior research fellow in global climate change and environmental politics at Sabanci University and IPC climate change research coordinator.
As for net-zero scenarios, Sahin said, “We are assuming technology and policy changes. Coal is phased out and renewables are tripled. These are economic, technical and policy options. These are assumptions that are supported by governments, but most of it happens in the market.”
The IPC does not take into account carbon capture system technologies or green hydrogen, as it does not assume the impact of infrastructure that is yet to be realized. Turkey is focused on electrification, as it has the potential to meet its energy needs with wind and especially solar photovoltaic capacity, and even lead Europe.
“There is huge potential in renewable resources such as hydro, solar, wind and geothermal, and Turkey should accelerate this transition to reap the economic benefits,” said Ufuk Alparslan, who analyzes data on decarbonization in Turkey, Ukraine and the Balkans for Enver, a London-based international think tank.
“Turkey remains isolated in the negotiations. It is even easier to act alone.”
Alparslan compared Turkey’s renewable energy capacity to the greater European region, where solar power is growing in the south and wind power in the north. Turkey’s wind power share is around 11 percent, higher than many European countries in the top 15. “When it comes to solar power, Turkey has one of the highest potentials in Europe,” Alparslan said.
Turkey lags behind in solar power in Europe, with less than 5 percent of its total electricity share. “Solar power has huge untapped potential,” Alparslan explained. “Because it is a distributed generation source, you don’t need to set up a big energy company to take part in this energy transition.” Alparslan also noted that Turkey’s hydropower potential is one of the highest in Europe.
Between developed and developing countries
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, the remaining global carbon budget is clear: To keep the global temperature rise below 1.5 degrees by the end of the century, Turkey’s share is 1.37 percent (carbon emissions only, excluding greenhouse gases), based on Turkey’s population, economy and historical responsibility, while the IPC puts its historical responsibility at 0.7 percent of the global budget.
“If a country’s historical responsibility is lower than its current responsibility, it means that in the future it should receive a higher allocation from the budget. This is based on fairness,” Sahin said, explaining that Turkey’s overall carbon budget represents a comprehensive look at countries’ emissions since the dawn of fossil fuel extraction.
Sahin argues that Turkey should get a bigger share of the global carbon budget, despite its relatively recent industrialization: “Our assumptions are based on phasing out fossil fuels. In 30 years, Turkey will be out of coal, but also out of most of oil and gas. This is a challenge for all countries. It is even harder for fossil fuel producers like Russia and Iran.”
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“For Turkey it’s easy. Importing fossil fuels is an economic issue. You always want to remain independent. A green transition is always good for the economy,” said Sahin. As a unique case among Annex I countries – developed countries and transition economies that are parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change – Turkey falls between developed and developing countries. “Turkey is still isolated in the negotiations. It is even easier to act alone.”
Since the February 6, 2023 earthquake left southeast Turkey in ruins, the IPC has been urging the recovery to decarbonise the construction sector, but a World Bank report has found that the sector is less efficient than the EU average and builders are simply sticking with business-as-usual urban planning.
Late last year, Turkey’s energy minister unveiled a new energy plan that sets a goal of curbing carbon-emitting electricity generation by 2035, but doesn’t take into account high emissions in transport and construction. “NGOs are influencing the reconstruction plan,” Alparslan said of solar retrofits in quake-hit areas. “But construction companies haven’t shown any interest yet.”
After Alparslan released his report, “Turkey Electricity Review 2023,” the Transmission System Operator, the body responsible for Turkey’s electricity infrastructure, raised the capacity allocated to solar power to an all-time high. “It was unexpected,” Alparslan said. “We definitely contributed to this impact.”
Switching from coal
However, as a result of the Ukraine war, the EU embargo has made Turkey more dependent than ever on Russian oil, coal and gas. Moreover, Turkey’s only nuclear power plant, Akkuyu, is owned by Russia. With Russia exporting fossil fuels to Turkey at below world prices, economic pragmatism has paved the way for crony capitalist politics.
“Turkey is close to integrating climate issues into its mainstream policies.”
Even as Turkey’s domestic coal-fired power ambitions are fast becoming obsolete, Turkey’s bottom line remains dependent on Russian fossil fuels.
However, according to Alparslan, “if we compare Turkey with other European countries, we may be the luckiest country in terms of renewable energy potential. Turkey can meet its domestic electricity needs with renewable energy sources and can easily accelerate this process.”
Alparslan believed that energy independence and saving on import costs would have a greater impact on policymakers than reducing emissions and global warming. As 50% of Turkey’s exports are to the EU, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism of the European Green Deal (which imposes a carbon tax on imports entering the EU) encouraged Turkey to ratify the Paris Agreement and reduce its coal-fired power capacity by 90%.
“On paper, the policy is moving away from coal to solar,” Alparslan said.
Translating this industry argument into actionable climate policy is the work of SEFiA (Sustainable Economy and Finance Association), a research-based environmental NGO whose founder, Bengis Ozenci, led a similar project at the Turkish Foundation for Economic Policy Research.
Over the past decade, Turkey’s environmental NGOs and public discourse have evolved into climate-conscious economic think tanks such as Ember and SEFiA. “There are highly respected academics working in the climate field, but they are not many in number,” Ozenci noted. “It’s important to bring climate policy competencies onto the agenda of economic policy actors.”
“Turkey is close to integrating climate into mainstream policy,” Ozenci said. “Science says we should be net zero by the middle of the century. There is no plan for that from the government. [before]”After ratifying the Paris Agreement, the government established the Climate Council. These stories, these reports, can help us.”
A recent SEFiA study, modeled on the U.S. Inflation Control Act, looked at the relationship between renewable energy and inflation in Turkey’s economic development. The results showed that the use of renewable energy could reduce Turkey’s inflation rate by seven percentage points. Ozenci noted the power of such information: “We’re reinforcing the narrative, and it’s working.”
