The southern Russian republic of Dagestan in the North Caucasus has long been plagued by extremist violence, and this weekend saw further bloodshed.
Authorities said five gunmen opened fire on an Orthodox church, two synagogues and a police station in the regional capital Makhachkala and the city of Derbent, killing at least 20 people before being shot dead by authorities.
The large-scale and coordinated attack raises difficult questions for Russian authorities about continuing security failures, especially after an attack in March claimed by an Islamic State affiliate at a Moscow-area concert hall left 145 people dead.
Let’s look at some unstable areas:
Where is Dagestan?
The Republic of Dagestan, located in the North Caucasus Mountains between Chechnya and the Caspian Sea, is known as one of Russia’s most diverse and unstable regions.
More than 30 ethnic groups are officially recognised, and 13 local languages have a special status along with Russian.
The region’s population has been growing rapidly in recent years and is expected to reach 3.2 million by 2024.
About 95 percent of the population identifies as Muslim, according to Russian government statistics, but the region also has long-standing Christian and Jewish communities, the latter dating back to the 5th century.
A history of violence
The area has been hit by violence since the early 2000s, when pressure from Russian security forces and hardline Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov pushed armed rebels fighting in neighbouring Chechnya’s separatist war into the region.
Bombings, attacks on police and kidnappings – all blamed on extremists – were commonplace in the area more than a decade ago.
Tighter security measures ahead of the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics eased the bloodshed and thousands of fighters are believed to have left for Syria and Iraq, where they fought alongside Islamic State militants.
“The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s aggression in Ukraine are also contributing to the suppression of violence,” said Harold Chambers, a political and security analyst specializing in the North Caucasus.
But the region remains unstable.
Russian activists say ethnic minorities in Ukraine enlist in a disproportionate number, and in October 2022 a video circulated of a protest against complaints that residents of the republic of Dagestan were recruiting in higher numbers than other regions.
In a sign that extremist sentiment remains running high, a mob targeted a flight from Israel at Makhachkala’s airport in October. Hundreds of men, some carrying banners with anti-Semitic slogans, stormed onto the runway, chasing passengers and hurling stones at police. More than 20 people were injured, but none were Israelis.
What happened this weekend?
The attacks took place on Sunday night in the cities of Derbent and the regional capital Makhachkala, when gunmen attacked a synagogue and an Orthodox church in Derbent, the Interior Ministry said.
The Russian Jewish Congress said the attackers set the building ablaze with Molotov cocktails less than an hour before evening services. Many of the victims were private security and police officers who had been stepping up security for worshippers after the Makhachkala airport incident involving an Israeli flight.
At the church, attackers slit the throat of Russian Orthodox priest Rabbi Nikolai Kotelnikov, 66, before setting the church on fire, according to Shamil Kaduraev, deputy head of a local public watchdog group. The attack came on the day Orthodox believers were celebrating Pentecost, also known as Trinity Sunday.
At about the same time, reports emerged of attacks on churches, synagogues and a traffic police station in Makhachkala, about 120 kilometers (about 75 miles) to the north.
Russia’s anti-terrorism committee said at least five militants were killed.
Why is this happening now?
Chambers said several factors have contributed to the unrest in Dagestan, including a “continued and intensifying crackdown” by Ukraine supporters and Russia, particularly following mass reactionary protests in September 2022.
He also said that “a longer-term trend of youth radicalization contributed to the events we saw in Makhachkala and Derbent.”
So far, no group has claimed responsibility for the attack.
A Telegram channel linked to the Islamic State-linked group that carried out the massacre at a Moscow concert hall praised Sunday’s attack as carried out by “brothers in the Caucasus” but did not claim any involvement from its own side.
Dagestan’s governor, Sergei Melikov, blamed Islamic “sleeper cells” sent from abroad but gave no other details. In a video statement, he said the attackers aimed to “sow panic and fear” and tried to link the attack to Russian military action in Ukraine, but provided no evidence.
President Vladimir Putin has tried to blame Ukraine for the Crocus City Hall attack in March, which was claimed, again without evidence, by an Islamic State affiliate – a charge Kiev strongly denies.
How did authorities respond?
Mark Youngman, founder of Threatologist, which analyzes Eurasian security risks and specializes in the North Caucasus, said Dagestan’s violent history led to heavy security in the region, but the response was slow and government agencies offered conflicting accounts as events unfolded.
“From a security perspective, the high number of security force casualties is cause for concern,” Youngman said, noting that Russian authorities have reported that at least 15 security force members are among the dead.
“If you look at the official response, you’ll say there are concerns about the ability of security forces to protect themselves, let alone protect others,” he said.
Russia’s state news agency TASS cited law enforcement sources as saying that a senior Dagestan government official had been detained and that his sons were suspected of being involved in the attack.
Concerns remain that Russia’s broader security apparatus has not learned the lessons from the concert attack at Moscow’s Crocus City Hall.
Chambers said authorities were “caught off guard” by Sunday’s attack.
He believes there remains a disconnect between Russia’s counterterrorism efforts and the capabilities of domestic attackers.
Chambers said there was no evidence that the Crocus attack would lead to a “change in Russia’s overall counter-terrorism strategy.”
“The solution remains deportation and repression. This has been Russia’s counterterrorism strategy for decades and has allowed attacks like today to occur,” he said.
