Turkey’s foreign policy has serious character problems. Turkiye is not treated as a reliable ally either in the East or the West. The reason for this is President Tayyip Erdogan’s habit of using the trends between blocs and between opposing forces to create his own positions. After problems with the West were reduced to a manageable level, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan maintained important contacts with China and Russia. Turkey’s desire to become a member of the BRICS came to the fore in the message.
After President Erdogan failed to condemn China for the genocide in East Turkestan and later regretted it, his desire to benefit from China’s Belt and Road Initiative did not meet the expected response in Beijing, and Erdogan was unable to gain China’s trust despite the importance it attached to Turkey.
During his June 3-5 visit, Fidan said he rejected terrorism, trade wars, foreign intervention and threats of war, and supported China’s “One China” policy, territorial integrity and political sovereignty. These resonated as criticism of Western interventionist policies throughout Xinjiang, Taiwan and Tibet. Despite this one step forward, China has taken two steps back, he noted. Dr. Yang Chen, an associate professor at Shanghai University, wrote about Chinese doubts about Turkey’s sincerity:
“The Turkish Foreign Minister made calls to the Islamic-Turkish cities of Urumqi and Kashgar. This statement is very strange because words such as Islamic, Turkish, Christian or Buddhist are not used to describe Chinese cities. This caused negative connotations…On the occasion of the Foreign Minister’s visit to China, the Turkish Navy frigate Yavuz crossed the Taiwan Strait and entered the East China Sea, followed and monitored by the People’s Liberation Army’s 052D missile destroyer. “It is clear that this move violates China’s core interests.” I take this to mean drawing eyebrows and plucking eyes.
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Turkiye is one of NATO’s main partners, which is trying to develop a China containment strategy under US pressure. Moreover, the Chinese government is looking into Ankara’s footprints because of East Turkistan, the Uighur diaspora, and the East Turkistan Islamic Party, which is taking refuge in Idlib, where Turkey has been a shield for almost a decade. Seedlings have also been opened. As for BRICS member states. Russia and China may treat Turkey differently than countries that are not involved in any bloc. This does not mean that they can ignore relations with Turkiye or that they will not pay attention to his possible deviation from the NATO axis.
Again, China may take into account Ankara’s expectations regarding its participation in the Development Path project. It may also refocus on the Central Corridor, which Turkey strongly desires, linking it with the South Caucasus, the Caspian Sea and Central Asia. These are possible. Beijing is moving slowly on this corridor. Turkey’s enthusiasm for BRICS is interpreted by the Russians as an opportunity to create a rift within NATO. The Chinese are a bit more tight-lipped. But in the end, Russian and Chinese assessments may converge on some suspicions as well as interests.
Judging from the framework laid out by Yang Chen, establishing mutual trust is not something that happens overnight. As the Chinese proverb goes, “A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step,” the speed of love starts from small things and gradually picks up speed. However, the amount of growth depends on the Chinese proverb, “listen to what people say and observe what they do.”
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Erdogan is a leader who can make quick decisions, suddenly change direction, then make a “U” turn to reach the same point. This kind of profile represents both opportunities and risks for states on both ends of the global power struggle. The Russians in particular experienced the conflict between opportunities and risks at close range. In the Ukrainian war, two opposing roles played out in parallel. On the one hand, Turkey provided Kiev with drones, 155mm artillery shells, military technology, and gave the green light to NATO expansion. On the other, Türkye mediated between the conflicting parties and opened trade routes with sanctioned Russia. It’s a difficult partnership to manage.
Associate Professor of the University of Finance, author of the book “Russia’s Middle East Poker”. Dr. Gevorg Mirzayan describes Erdogan’s Turkey as a formidable negotiating partner who can break agreements at the last minute or interpret them in a way that suits him. This reminds him of the concessions he received from Sweden and Finland in exchange for NATO membership. And he predicts that Ankara will not be able to join BRICS. “Turkey’s entire foreign policy is based on balance. Ankara does not have huge natural resources, a super-efficient army, energy resources, but it has a geographical location and a president who likes to play diplomatic poker. Erdogan draws resources from others, for example, balancing the centers of power. But it is not exactly balanced. “Otherwise, we will have rivals in the West and in the East,” he says. He sees the Ankara government’s BRICS story only as a tool to increase Turkey’s geopolitical importance, put pressure on the West and extract concessions. And he thinks that this is not a trend worth supporting for Russia.
St. Petersburg State University Professor Dr. Stanislav Tkachenko also stated that “until the BRICS membership criteria are clarified, it seems difficult for Turkey to join.” He argued that one of the ideal conditions for Turkey to join BRICS would be for Turkey to abandon its NATO membership, adding that “Turkey will not accept this.” He predicted that Turkey, which considers even NATO a terrible partner in terms of loyalty, will not rely on any international organizations in the future. Frankly, it is still too early to discuss the conditions for BRICS membership “with or without NATO.”
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Meanwhile, problems are piling up between Turkey and Russia, with both sides avoiding reflections on relations. The reason why Russian President Vladimir Putin postponed his visit to Turkey from the spring of 2023 is that the problems are far from being resolved and distrust is growing. Putin knows that Erdogan calls him “brother” when he argues with the West or tries to escalate relations with them, and clings to the NATO handbook when the winds change direction. The length of the meeting is also a problem. Fidan’s contact in Russia came on the occasion of the BRICS+ meeting on June 10-11, which is similar to a damage assessment exercise before the planned summit. Fidan met with Secretary of the Security Council Sergey Shoigu and Head of the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Sergey Naryshkin in Moscow, and then with Sergey Lavrov in Nizhny Novgorod. Fidan returned to Moscow again on June 11, this time to be welcomed by President Putin at the Kremlin Palace. Given that President Putin rarely meets with foreign ministers, the situation seems quite serious. While announcing that he would meet with President Erdogan at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit to be held in Astana on July 3 and 4, President Putin said, “There will be an opportunity to discuss all issues,” and said it would not be surprising if President Putin fueled Turkey’s desire to join BRICS. If that would create a rift in NATO, in his acceptance speech to Fidan, President Putin said, “I welcome Turkey’s interest in BRICS activities, without mentioning the member countries. We definitely support the desire to cooperate with the allied countries,” he said.
Putin’s accession goal and sincerity are questioned, but the quest in this direction provides him with an opportunity to score goals against the “Western group” fighting in Ukraine. Russia and China care about BRICS for a multipolar world countering American hegemony. The journey that started with Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa has expanded to Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran, Egypt and Ethiopia. Turkey’s accession was on the agenda at Erdogan’s Johannesburg summit in 2018, but then faded away. Turkey, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belarus, Algeria, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Cuba, Laos, Mauritania, Nigeria, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Venezuela and Vietnam were also invited to the BRICS+ session in Russia.
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The Turkish government insists that BRICS is not an alternative to the EU or NATO. EU membership is now a distant prospect. The framework that the EU has set for its relations with Turkey has revealed itself to be a stable trade partnership, loyalty to NATO, distance from Russia, and a barrier to stop the influx of refugees. The three to five countries that want Turkey to join the EU have also gone silent since President Erdogan established his dictatorial government. Meanwhile, the BRICS economy of $28.5 trillion represents 28% of the world economy. Again, BRICS produces 44 percent of the world’s crude oil. The New Development Bank, established within the BRICS framework in 2014, provided $32 billion in loans for infrastructure projects until 2023. With the economic and behavioral capabilities of the EU, less dominated by the United States than yesterday, eroding, it is difficult for Turkey to remain indifferent to the potential that the Global South offers. But President Erdogan has given Turkey a bizarre outfit in which neither the ending nor the headline matches.
While Erdogan’s team is knocking on the doors of London, Brussels and Washington to reassure financial markets, European partners are testing Turkey to ensure that sanctions against Russia are not violated. The drop in trade volumes shows that Turkey had to take some steps.
Putin, whose gestures such as postponing natural gas payments and transferring funds for the construction of the Akkuyu nuclear power plant to reassure Erdogan ahead of the 2023 elections, are frowned upon at the moment. The Russian leader visited St. Petersburg on June 5. His warning at the St. Petersburg economic forum was highly unusual. “While Turkey is working with Ukraine, Kiev is trying to destroy the pipeline that brings gas to Turkey. Let Erdogan know what has actually happened,” he said. In his second warning, he directly targeted Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek, saying: “Turkey’s economic management is focused on receiving loans, investments and subsidies from Western financial institutions. This is probably not a bad thing. But if this is due to restrictions on relations with Russia, the Turkish economy will lose more than it gains.”
Meanwhile, Şimşek was preparing to receive World Bank President Ajay Banga, who increased Turkey’s loans from $17 billion to $35 billion. Putin will probably pile stones in front of Erdoğan in Astana. We’ll see if the BRICS ease up on these stones.
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If Turkey’s BRICS adventure goes into full swing, it may cause a great stir on both sides of the sea. The entry of NATO member states into BRICS, which considers Russia and China as threats, may have positive and negative effects on both camps. On the one hand, some predict that “BRICS will be strengthened by the membership of NATO allies” in response to concerns that “Turkey will become a Trojan horse for NATO in BRICS”. On the other hand, some expect that “Turkey will block the anti-Western orientation of BRICS” despite warnings that “NATO harmony will be disturbed”. The contrasting meaning comes from the fact that BRICS resembles a caravan lined up on a road. It is not holistic and institutional like the EU. There is no concrete roadmap or criteria for the conditions of participation. The fact that BRICS does not position itself as “anti-Western” gives room for maneuver to countries that want to diversify their relations. However, BRICS emphasizes multipolarity on the “nationalist”, “independent” and “sovereignist” lines, which naturally erodes the liberal and interventionist hegemony of the West. Another factor that helps draw contrasting conclusions is Erdogan’s unpredictable leadership.
