Tatarstan flag at the parliament in Kazan (Credit: Original uploader: PetarM at Serbian Wikipedia; CC BY-SA 3.0 RS, via Wikimedia Commons)
Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 42, Number 8
Author: Giuliano Bifolchi
executive summary
The meeting between Tatarstan’s Head of State Rustam Minnikhanov and Turkey’s Director General of the Investment Bureau Burak Daglioglu in April signaled the deepening of economic ties between the two countries.
The report examines the impact of the meeting on the geopolitical scenario in the region, assesses the associated risks and highlights Tatarstan’s role in strengthening Moscow’s diplomatic ties while remaining a key economic and political asset in Russian hands.
Background information
Tatarstan has historically maintained strong economic and cultural ties with Turkey. On April 19, 2024, Head of State of the Republic of Tatarstan in the Russian Federation Rustam Minnikhanov met with Burak Daglioglu and discussed the high value of Turkish-Tatar relations and the possibilities for strengthening trade, economic and investment cooperation.
Tatarstan’s strategic location and investment-friendly environment make it an attractive destination for Turkish companies, and Kazan’s efforts to strengthen ties with Ankara are in line with the country’s broader aim of fostering ties with Russia and the Islamic world.
Tatarstan: Geopolitical scenario
Tatarstan occupies a strategically important position within the Russian Federation. Located at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, this Russian republic is in the Volga Federal District and is not only a cultural centre but also a major industrial centre, especially in the oil and petrochemical sectors. Its capital, Kazan, serves as the centre for Tatar culture as well as the wider region.
Geographically, Tatarstan boasts a diverse landscape. The republic’s diverse landscape spans over 68,000 square kilometres of the East European Plain and is characterised by extensive forests and natural resources. However, a significant decline in forest cover has raised environmental concerns. Nevertheless, Tatarstan is rich in resources such as oil, gas and gypsum, and it is estimated that there are substantial oil reserves.
Tatarstan is a culturally vibrant tapestry. The republic of over 4 million people has strong cultural ties to neighboring regions. Its official languages, Tatar and Russian, reflect this diversity. Tatar identity is firmly rooted in its history as part of the former Tatar ASSR. However, preserving this heritage has faced challenges during the Soviet era and continues to be a debated trend.
Autonomy and centralization characterize the region’s political landscape. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Republic of Tatarstan declared its sovereignty within the Russian Federation, reflecting a desire to preserve its cultural identity. However, under President Putin, there has been a push toward a more centralized state structure, which has appeared as a limitation on Tatarstan’s aspirations for autonomy.
Nevertheless, the Tatar Republic continues to invest heavily in preserving its cultural heritage. In recent years, the government has undertaken significant projects focused on restoring historical sites, demonstrating the importance of Tatar identity in the current political climate. Debate over the Tatar Republic’s status within Russia is likely to continue, with the region serving as a microcosm of the broader issue of autonomy within the Russian Federation.
The April meeting reflected a broader trend of regional economic integration and cooperation: Ankara’s interest in Tatar’s agricultural sector and tech industry signals recognition of the republic’s economic potential.
Moreover, Tatarstan’s hosting of the 15th international economic forum “Russia-Islamic World: Kazan Forum” (May 14-19, 2024) will underscore its role as a bridge between Russia and the Islamic world, not only enhancing the republic’s geopolitical importance but also contributing to Russia’s broader foreign policy goals.
Risk scenario
Tatarstan’s growing economic ties with Turkey offer great opportunities but also carry certain risks: greater reliance on Turkish investment could expose Kazan to geopolitical tensions between Ankara, Moscow and regional adversaries.
Increasing economic integration between Kazan and Ankara could strain relations with other Russian regions and federal authorities. Geopolitical uncertainties, such as shifting global trade trends and regional political instability, could affect the sustainability of Tatarstan-Turkey economic ties.
Investment Opportunities and Economic Performance
Scenario: Increased investment in Turkey’s oil and gas sector leads to short-term economic benefits but strains relations with Russia.
Analysis: Turkish investment could provide much-needed capital and expertise to modernize Tatarstan’s oil and gas industry, but it could also increase tensions with the Russian government. Russia tightly controls strategic energy resources, and Moscow may view Turkey’s increased involvement with suspicion. This could lead to increased regulations and tax burdens on Turkish companies operating in Tatarstan, ultimately hindering economic growth.
Mitigation: To mitigate this risk, Kazan should seek to attract companies from various countries other than Turkey and diversify its investment portfolio. Ensuring transparency in investment transactions and close communication with the Russian Federation government can ease concerns. Turkey’s emerging role and its investment impact on Kazan
Scenario: Turkey’s growing presence in Tatarstan incites nationalist sentiment in the region, leading to social unrest and instability.
Analysis: Because Kazan and Ankara share cultural ties, increasing Turkish influence could be perceived as a threat to Russian identity and the Kremlin’s efforts to promote multiculturalism under central government control. This could cause social tensions and even protests from some Tatars who feel closer in culture to Turkey than Russia. Furthermore, increased Turkish investment in certain sectors could lead to concerns about competition for jobs and foreign domination, further fueling social unrest.
Mitigation: The Tatarstan government should emphasize the benefits of Turkish investment while assuring the Russian central government that Tatar cultural heritage will not become an issue of national unity. Open communication with the public and addressing concerns about cultural dilution will help maintain social stability. Ankara-Moscow relations regarding Kazan
Scenario: Deteriorating relations between Turkey and Russia spills over into Tatarstan-Turkey economic relations, affecting foreign direct investment (FDI).
Analysis: Relations between Turkey and Russia have been unstable in recent years. A major political or military conflict between the two countries could lead to trade and investment restrictions, affecting Turkish companies operating in the Republic of Turkey. This could stifle economic growth in the region and limit Kazan’s ability to attract foreign capital.
Mitigation: Tatarstan should strive to remain neutral in any conflict between Turkey and Russia. Diversifying its trade partners can help mitigate the economic impact of a possible deterioration in Turkish-Russian relations.
Conclusion
The meeting between the Tatarstan leadership and the Turkish delegation underscores the strategic importance of economic cooperation in shaping regional geopolitics. Tatarstan’s role as a promoter of Russian-Islamic relations further enhances its geopolitical importance.
Deepening ties between Tatarstan and Turkey offer opportunities for economic growth, but careful risk management and strategic foresight are essential to overcome potential challenges and ensure the long-term sustainability of these relationships.
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